Related papers: Uncertainty Quantification via Stable Distribution…

We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent…

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Uncertainty quantification is an important task in machine learning - a task in which standardneural networks (NNs) have traditionally not excelled. This can be a limitation for safety-critical applications, where uncertainty-aware methods…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Robustly and accurately localizing objects in real-world environments can be challenging due to noisy data, hardware limitations, and the inherent randomness of physical systems. To account for these factors, existing works estimate the…

Robust estimators, like the median of a point set, are important for data analysis in the presence of outliers. We study robust estimators for locationally uncertain points with discrete distributions. That is, each point in a data set has…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

In this paper, we address the problem of uncertainty propagation through nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. More precisely, given a discrete-time continuous-state probabilistic nonlinear dynamical system, we aim at finding the sequence…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

This paper studies the problem of steering the distribution of a discrete-time dynamical system from an initial distribution to a target distribution in finite time. The formulation is fully nonlinear, allowing the use of general control…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

Recent works have shown that exploiting unlabeled data through label propagation can substantially reduce the labeling cost, which has been a critical issue in developing visual recognition models. Yet, how to propagate labels reliably,…

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

When propagating uncertainty in the data of differential equations, the probability laws describing the uncertainty are typically themselves subject to uncertainty. We present a sensitivity analysis of uncertainty propagation for…

Robustness analysis is an emerging field in the domain of uncertainty quantification. It consists of analysing the response of a computer model with uncertain inputs to the perturbation of one or several of its input distributions. Thus, a…

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

This paper proposes a new method to propagate uncertainties undergoing nonlinear dynamics using the Koopman Operator (KO). Probability density functions are propagated directly using the Koopman approximation of the solution flow of the…

This paper investigates the state estimation problem for a class of complex networks, in which the dynamics of each node is subject to Gaussian noise, system uncertainties and nonlinearities. Based on a regularized least-squares approach,…

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…