Related papers: Joint estimation of the predictive ability of expe…

Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a non-parametric, Bayesian framework to approximate complex models. Standard GP regression can lead to an unbounded model in which some points can take infeasible values. We introduce a new GP method that…

Traffic speed data imputation is a fundamental challenge for data-driven transport analysis. In recent years, with the ubiquity of GPS-enabled devices and the widespread use of crowdsourcing alternatives for the collection of traffic data,…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

High-fidelity simulations and physical experiments are essential for engineering analysis and design, yet their high cost often makes two critical tasks--global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and optimization--prohibitively expensive. This…

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a fundamental model used in machine learning. Owing to its accurate prediction with uncertainty and versatility in handling various data structures via kernels, GPR has been successfully used in various…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Linear systems occur throughout engineering and the sciences, most notably as differential equations. In many cases the forcing function for the system is unknown, and interest lies in using noisy observations of the system to infer the…

Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex computer model behaviour across the input space. Motivated by the problem of coupling computer models, recently progress has been made in the theory of the analysis of…

Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of…

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for extrapolation, interpolation, and noise removal in regression and classification. This paper considers constraining GPs to arbitrarily-shaped domains with boundary conditions. We…

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…

Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as distributions of random effects in linear mixed models, which are fit using the restricted likelihood or the closely-related Bayesian analysis. This article addresses two problems. First, we…

Multi-output Gaussian Processes provide principled uncertainty-aware learning of vector-valued fields but are difficult to deploy in large-scale, distributed, and streaming settings due to their computational and centralized nature. This…