Related papers: Opinion models, data, and politics
This article is concerned with a general class of stochastic spatial models for the dynamics of opinions. Like in the voter model, individuals are located on the vertex set of a connected graph and update their opinion at a constant rate…
Election control considers the problem of an adversary who attempts to tamper with a voting process, in order to either ensure that their favored candidate wins (constructive control) or another candidate loses (destructive control). As…
While opinion dynamics models have been extensively studied as stylized models, there has been growing attention to the possibility of combining these models with empirical data. This attention seems to be driven by the many social issues…
Various effects in human cognition, often considered `non-classical', have been argued to be most naturally modelled by quantum-like models of decision making. We extend this approach to describe models of cognition and decision-making in…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
Traditional models of opinion dynamics provide a simple approach to understanding human behavior in basic social scenarios. However, when it comes to issues such as polarization and extremism, we require a more nuanced understanding of…
This paper introduces a generalised opinion model that extends the standard DeGroot model by representing agents' opinions and influences as soft constraints rather than single real values. This allows for modelling scenarios beyond the…
Here we report a precise computer simulation study of the static critical properties of the two-dimensional $q$-states Potts model using very accurate data obtained from a modified Wang-Landau (WL) scheme proposed by Caparica and…
We present a new strategic voting model where we use uncertainty representation to model preferences. Specifically, we use probability sets as uncertainty representations, together with lower and upper expected utility gains to take…
We present an opinion model founded upon the principles of the bounded confidence interaction among agents. Our objective is to explain the polarization effects inherent to vector-valued opinions. The evolutionary process adheres to the…
Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…
We study opinion dynamics in a social network with stubborn agents who influence their neighbors but who themselves always stick to their initial opinion. We consider first the well-known DeGroot model. While it is known in the literature…
The Mann-Whitney effect is an effect measure for the order of two sample-specific outcome variables. It has the interpretation of a probability and also a connection to the area under the ROC curve. In the literature it has been considered…
Complex dynamical systems driven by the unravelling of information can be modelled effectively by treating the underlying flow of information as the model input. Complicated dynamical behaviour of the system is then derived as an output.…
In this paper, we extend the voter model (VM) and the threshold voter model (TVM) to include external influences modelled as a jump process. We study the newly-formulated models both analytically and computationally, employing diffusion…
A recent analysis of empirical limit order flow data highlights the necessity for a more refined order flow model that integrates the power-law distribution of limit order cancellation times. These cancellation times follow a discrete…
Most of the conventional models for opinion dynamics mainly account for a fully local influence, where myopic agents decide their actions after they interact with other agents that are adjacent to them. For example, in the case of social…
We investigate the coarsening kinetics in a long-range variant of the Persistent Voter Model in space dimension $d=1$ and 2. In this model agents can hold two confidence levels, normal and zealot. If normal, agents take the opinion of…
We investigate a variation of the classical voter model in which the set of influencing agents depends on an individual's current opinion. The initial population consists of a random sample of equally sized sub-populations for each state,…
Voter demographics and socio-economic factors like age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income, and other measurable factors like behaviour in previous elections or referenda are of key importance in modelling opinion formation dynamics.…