Related papers: From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Foreca…

This paper introduces the Univariate Gaussian Mixture Model Neural Network (uGMM-NN), a novel neural architecture that embeds probabilistic reasoning directly into the computational units of deep networks. Unlike traditional neurons, which…

This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly used in critical human applications for predicting node labels in attributed graphs. Their ability to aggregate features from nodes' neighbors for accurate classification also has the capacity…

Training a deep neural network (DNN) often involves stochastic optimization, which means each run will produce a different model. Several works suggest this variability is negligible when models have the same performance, which in the case…

This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…

Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However,…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

It is well-known that deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown remarkable success in many fields. However, when adding an imperceptible magnitude perturbation on the model input, the model performance might get rapid decrease. To address this…

Stock market prediction is a long-standing challenge in finance, as accurate forecasts support informed investment decisions. Traditional models rely mainly on historical prices, but recent work shows that financial news can provide useful…

Performance forecasting is an age-old problem in economics and finance. Recently, developments in machine learning and neural networks have given rise to non-linear time series models that provide modern and promising alternatives to…

In finance, implied volatility is an important indicator that reflects the market situation immediately. Many practitioners estimate volatility using iteration methods, such as the Newton--Raphson (NR) method. However, if numerous implied…

This study examines the performance of a volatility-based strategy using Chinese equity index ETF options. Initially successful, the strategy's effectiveness waned post-2018. By integrating GARCH models for volatility forecasting, the…

Recently, numerous deep models have been proposed to enhance the performance of multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Among them, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs)-based methods have shown great potential due to their capability to…

Stochastic graph neural networks (SGNNs) are information processing architectures that learn representations from data over random graphs. SGNNs are trained with respect to the expected performance, which comes with no guarantee about…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

In this paper, we introduce a new single model maneuvering target tracking approach using stochastic differential equation (SDE) based on GARCH volatility. The traditional input estimation (IE) techniques assume constant acceleration level…

Graph neural networks (GNN) represent an emerging line of deep learning models that operate on graph structures. It is becoming more and more popular due to its high accuracy achieved in many graph-related tasks. However, GNN is not as well…

Neural Networks (NNs) have been successfully employed to represent the state evolution of complex dynamical systems. Such models, referred to as NN dynamic models (NNDMs), use iterative noisy predictions of NN to estimate a distribution of…

Neural networks (NNs) are employed to predict equations of state from a given isotropic pair potential using the virial expansion of the pressure. The NNs are trained with data from molecular dynamics simulations of monoatomic gases and…

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have proved to be suitable in tasks on unstructured data. Particularly in tasks as community detection, node classification, and link prediction. However, most GNN models still operate with static…