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Neural population activity exhibits complex, nonlinear dynamics, varying in time, over trials, and across experimental conditions. Here, we develop Conditionally Linear Dynamical System (CLDS) models as a general-purpose method to…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-31 Victor Geadah , Amin Nejatbakhsh , David Lipshutz , Jonathan W. Pillow , Alex H. Williams

Collecting operationally realistic data to inform machine learning models can be costly. Before collecting new data, it is helpful to understand where a model is deficient. For example, object detectors trained on images of rare objects may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-24 Anna R. Flowers , Christopher T. Franck , Robert B. Gramacy , Justin A. Krometis

Many fields of science and engineering rely on running simulations with complex and computationally expensive models to understand the involved processes in the system of interest. Nevertheless, the high cost involved hamper reliable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-16 Daniel Heestermans Svendsen , Luca Martino , Gustau Camps-Valls

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Satya Narayan Shukla , Benjamin M. Marlin

Safety is a critical issue in learning-based robotic and autonomous systems as learned information about their environments is often unreliable and inaccurate. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware motion control tool that is robust…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Astghik Hakobyan , Insoon Yang

This paper presents a problem of model learning for the purpose of learning how to navigate a ball to a goal state in a circular maze environment with two degrees of freedom. The motion of the ball in the maze environment is influenced by…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-09-20 Diego Romeres , Devesh Jha , Alberto Dalla Libera , William Yerazunis , Daniel Nikovski

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Christian Fiedler , Carsten W. Scherer , Sebastian Trimpe

Complex-valued signals are used in the modeling of many systems in engineering and science, hence being of fundamental interest. Often, random complex-valued signals are considered to be proper. A proper complex random variable or process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-19 Rafael Boloix-Tortosa , F. Javier Payán-Somet , Eva Arias-de-Reyna , Juan José Murillo-Fuentes

This paper proposes methods of predicting dynamic time series (including non-stationary ones) based on a linguistic approach, namely, the study of occurrences and repetition of so-called N-grams. This approach is used in computational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Dmytro Lande , Volodymyr Yuzefovych , Yevheniia Tsybulska

Recent advances in learning techniques have enabled the modelling of dynamical systems for scientific and engineering applications directly from data. However, in many contexts explicit data collection is expensive and learning algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Steffen Ridderbusch , Christian Offen , Sina Ober-Blöbaum , Paul Goulart

A large collection of time series poses significant challenges for classical and neural forecasting approaches. Classical time series models fail to fit data well and to scale to large problems, but succeed at providing uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-04 Danielle C. Maddix , Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola

The paper covers the design and analysis of experiments to discriminate between two Gaussian process models, such as those widely used in computer experiments, kriging, sensor location and machine learning. Two frameworks are considered.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Elham Yousefi , Luc Pronzato , Markus Hainy , Werner G. Müller , Henry P. Wynn

Information theoretic active learning has been widely studied for probabilistic models. For simple regression an optimal myopic policy is easily tractable. However, for other tasks and with more complex models, such as classification with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-30 Neil Houlsby , Ferenc Huszár , Zoubin Ghahramani , Máté Lengyel

Gaussian processes are a versatile framework for learning unknown functions in a manner that permits one to utilize prior information about their properties. Although many different Gaussian process models are readily available when the…

The problem of learning the structure of a high dimensional graphical model from data has received considerable attention in recent years. In many applications such as sensor networks and proteomics it is often expensive to obtain samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-08 Gautam Dasarathy , Aarti Singh , Maria-Florina Balcan , Jong Hyuk Park

Safe active learning (AL) is a sequential scheme for learning unknown systems while respecting safety constraints during data acquisition. Existing methods often rely on Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the task and safety constraints,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Cen-You Li , Marc Toussaint , Barbara Rakitsch , Christoph Zimmer

Reliability analysis aims at estimating the failure probability of an engineering system. It often requires multiple runs of a limit-state function, which usually relies on computationally intensive simulations. Traditionally, these…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-22 Anderson V. Pires , Maliki Moustapha , Stefano Marelli , Bruno Sudret

The Gaussian process is a powerful and flexible technique for interpolating spatiotemporal data, especially with its ability to capture complex trends and uncertainty from the input signal. This chapter describes Gaussian processes as an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-11 Kien Nguyen , John Krumm , Cyrus Shahabi

Safely exploring an unknown dynamical system is critical to the deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) in physical systems where failures may have catastrophic consequences. In scenarios where one knows little about the dynamics, diverse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-01 Tyler Lu , Martin Zinkevich , Craig Boutilier , Binz Roy , Dale Schuurmans

Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-20 Yuxin Chang , Alex Boyd , Padhraic Smyth