Related papers: A universal robust bound for the intrinsic Bayes f…

Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…

Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of…

We present a PAC-Bayes-style generalization bound which enables the replacement of the KL-divergence with a variety of Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). We provide instances of this bound with the IPM being the total variation metric and…

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound…

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty…

This paper contains a recipe for deriving new PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds based on the $(f, \Gamma)$-divergence, and, in addition, presents PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds where we interpolate between a series of probability divergences…

Bayes factors are an increasingly popular tool for indexing evidence from experiments. For two competing population models, the Bayes factor reflects the relative likelihood of observing some data under one model compared to the other. In…

For the ANOVA model, we propose a new g-prior based Bayes factor without integral representation, with reasonable model selection consistency for any asymptotic situations (either number of levels of the factor and/or number of replication…

We present a new PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. Standard bounds contain a $\sqrt{L_n \cdot \KL/n}$ complexity term which dominates unless $L_n$, the empirical error of the learning algorithm's randomized predictions, vanishes. We manage…

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

We propose the first general PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for adversarial robustness, that estimate, at test time, how much a model will be invariant to imperceptible perturbations in the input. Instead of deriving a worst-case…

In the class of normal regression models with a finite number of regressors, and for a wide class of prior distributions, a Bayesian model selection procedure based on the Bayes factor is consistent [Casella and Moreno J. Amer. Statist.…

Bayesian optimization is normally performed within fixed variable bounds. In cases like hyperparameter tuning for machine learning algorithms, setting the variable bounds is not trivial. It is hard to guarantee that any fixed bounds will…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

We present a unifying picture of PAC-Bayesian and mutual information-based upper bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. As we show, Tong Zhang's information exponential inequality (IEI) gives a general recipe…

Error bounds have been studied for more than seventy years, beginning with the seminal result of Hoffman (1952) [{\it J. Res. Natl. Bur. Standards}, 49 (1952), 263--265], which establishes an upper bound for the distance from an arbitrary…

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

The complex nature of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments results in a very large number of experimental parameters that are only known with limited reliability. These parameters, combined with the myriad physical models that…

We develop the foundations of a general framework for producing optimal upper and lower bounds on the sum $\sum_p a_p$ over primes $p$, where $(a_n)_{x/2<n\le x}$ is an arbitrary non-negative sequence satisfying Type I and Type II…