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Modern deep models for summarization attains impressive benchmark performance, but they are prone to generating miscalibrated predictive uncertainty. This means that they assign high confidence to low-quality predictions, leading to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Polina Zablotskaia , Du Phan , Joshua Maynez , Shashi Narayan , Jie Ren , Jeremiah Liu

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for the deployment of image restoration models in safety-critical domains, like autonomous driving and biological imaging. To date, methods for uncertainty visualization have mainly focused on per-pixel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Elias Nehme , Omer Yair , Tomer Michaeli

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Sam Allen , Jonathan Koh , Johan Segers , Johanna Ziegel

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Teodora Popordanoska , Sebastian G. Gruber , Aleksei Tiulpin , Florian Buettner , Matthew B. Blaschko

The projection predictive variable selection is a decision-theoretically justified Bayesian variable selection approach achieving an outstanding trade-off between predictive performance and sparsity. Its projection problem is not easy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Frank Weber , Änne Glass , Aki Vehtari

We evaluate two different methods for the integration of prediction uncertainty into diagnostic image classifiers to increase patient safety in deep learning. In the first method, Monte Carlo sampling is applied with dropout at test time to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-05 Max-Heinrich Laves , Sontje Ihler , Tobias Ortmaier

While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Dhaivat Bhatt , Kaustubh Mani , Dishank Bansal , Krishna Murthy , Hanju Lee , Liam Paull

In this paper, we introduce two novel parallel projection methods for finding a solution of a system of variational inequalities which is also a common fixed point of a family of (asymptotically) $\kappa$ - strict pseudocontractive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-09 Dang Van Hieu

Pipelined Krylov subspace methods (also referred to as communication-hiding methods) have been proposed in the literature as a scalable alternative to classic Krylov subspace algorithms for iteratively computing the solution to a large…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Siegfried Cools , Jeffrey Cornelis , Wim Vanroose

In the current work we introduce a novel estimation of distribution algorithm to tackle a hard combinatorial optimization problem, namely the single-machine scheduling problem, with uncertain delivery times. The majority of the existing…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-12-05 Boris Mitavskiy , Jun He

We consider discrete optimization problems with interval uncertatinty of objective function coefficients. The interval uncertainty models measurements errors. A pos\-sible optimal solution is a solution that is optimal for some possible…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Alexander Prolubnikov

The problem of estimating certain distributions over $\{0,1\}^d$ is considered here. The distribution represents a quantum system of $d$ qubits, where there are non-trivial dependencies between the qubits. A maximum entropy approach is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-08 Ryan Bennink , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Pavel Lougovski

CLIP delivers strong zero-shot classification but remains highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Previous work of adversarial fine-tuning largely focuses on matching the predicted logits between clean and adversarial examples, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenjing lu , Zerui Tao , Dongping Zhang , Yuning Qiu , Yang Yang , Qibin Zhao

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Romeo Valentin

Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Yaodong Yu , Stephen Bates , Yi Ma , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…