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The presence of uncertainties are inevitable in engineering design and analysis, where failure in understanding their effects might lead to the structural or functional failure of the systems. The role of global sensitivity analysis in this…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-24 Pramudita Satria Palar , Lavi Rizki Zuhal , Koji Shimoyama , Takeshi Tsuchiya

Growing uncertainty from renewable energy integration and distributed energy resources motivate the need for advanced tools to quantify the effect of uncertainty and assess the risks it poses to secure system operation. Polynomial chaos…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-16 David Métivier , Marc Vuffray , Sidhant Misra

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a classical and widely used surrogate modeling technique in physical simulation and uncertainty quantification. By taking a linear combination of a set of basis polynomials - orthonormal with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Johannes Exenberger , Sascha Ranftl , Robert Peharz

In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on Chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity and the propagation of epistemic uncertainty through a queueing systems with breakdowns. Here, the quantity of interest is the stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-17 Katia Bachi , Cédric Chauvière , Hacène Djellout , Karim Abbas

Uncertainty quantification seeks to provide a quantitative means to understand complex systems that are impacted by parametric uncertainty. The polynomial chaos method is a computational approach to solve stochastic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-27 Melvin Leok , Gautam Wilkins

We present an enriched formulation of the Least Squares (LSQ) regression method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) using generalised polynomial chaos (gPC). More specifically, we enrich the linear system with additional equations for the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-09 Kyriakos D. Kantarakias , George Papadakis

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Kellin N. Rumsey , Devin Francom , Graham C. Gibson , J. Derek Tucker , Gabriel Huerta

We consider the effect of multiple stochastic parameters on the time-average quantities of chaotic systems. We employ the recently proposed \cite{Kantarakias_Papadakis_2023} sensitivity-enhanced generalized polynomial chaos expansion,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2023-11-02 George Papadakis , Kyriakos D. Kantarakias

In the field of computer experiments sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the relative importance of each input parameter (or combinations thereof) of a computational model with respect to the model output uncertainty. Variance…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-23 Bruno Sudret , Chu Van Mai

A surrogate model approximates a computationally expensive solver. Polynomial Chaos is a method to construct surrogate models by summing combinations of carefully chosen polynomials. The polynomials are chosen to respect the probability…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-06-29 Thomas A. McCourt , Brodie Lawson , Fengde Zhou , Bevan Thompson , Stephen Tyson , Diane Donovan

Surrogate modeling of costly mathematical models representing physical systems is challenging since it is typically not possible to create a large experimental design. Thus, it is beneficial to constrain the approximation to adhere to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Lukáš Novák , Himanshu Sharma , Michael D. Shields

The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources introduces significant operational uncertainty into power systems. Although Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) provides an efficient tool for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in power…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-24 Le Fang , Wangkun Xu , Fei Teng

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used in the framework of uncertainty quantification. However, when dealing with high dimensional complex problems, challenging issues need to be faced. For instance, high-order polynomials may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-02 Chu V. Mai , Bruno Sudret

The surrogate model-based uncertainty quantification method has drawn much attention in many engineering fields. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and deep learning (DL) are powerful methods for building a surrogate model. However, PCE needs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-02 Wen Yao , Xiaohu Zheng , Jun Zhang , Ning Wang , Guijian Tang

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Roland Herzog

Machine learning (ML) surrogate models are increasingly used in engineering analysis and design to replace computationally expensive simulation models, significantly reducing computational cost and accelerating decision-making processes.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Xiaoping Du

Recently, the use of Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been increasing to study the uncertainty in mathematical models for a wide range of applications and several extensions of the original PCE technique have been developed to deal with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-06-23 Maria Navarro , Jeroen Witteveen , Joke Blom

Software engineers often have to estimate the performance of a software system before having full knowledge of the system parameters, such as workload and operational profile. These uncertain parameters inevitably affect the accuracy of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Aldeida Aleti , Catia Trubiani , André van Hoorn , Pooyan Jamshidi

Building surrogate models with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness, such as variability in material properties, is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Bahador Bahmani , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Michael D. Shields

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has received much attention in the literature in the past decade. In this context, Sparse Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) have been shown to be among the most promising methods because of their ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-17 N. Fajraoui , S. Marelli , B. Sudret
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