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The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

Real-time economic information is essential for policy-making but difficult to obtain. We introduce a granular nowcasting method for macro- and industry-level GDP using a network approach and data on real-time monthly inter-industry…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-05 Anastasia Mantziou , Kerstin Hotte , Mihai Cucuringu , Gesine Reinert

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-12-09 Julien Brajard , Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino

This systematic review examines how machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) have transformed forecasting, decision-making, and financial modelling, promoting innovation and efficiency in financial systems. Following PRISMA 2020…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Soufiane El Amine El Alami , Abderazzak Mouiha , Abdelatif Hafid , Ahmed El Hilali Alaoui

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-12 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-01-06 Rickard Nyman , Paul Ormerod

We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-21 Li Rong Wang , Hsuan Fu , Xiuyi Fan

Understanding the effect of uncertainty and noise in data on machine learning models (MLM) is crucial in developing trust and measuring performance. In this paper, a new model is proposed to quantify uncertainties and noise in data on MLMs.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Usman Anjum , Chris Trentman , Elrod Caden , Justin Zhan

In this paper we develop a novel method of combining many forecasts based on a machine learning algorithm called Graphical LASSO (GL). We visualize forecast errors from different forecasters as a network of interacting entities and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-28 Tae-Hwy Lee , Ekaterina Seregina

FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Sijie He , Xinyan Li , Timothy DelSole , Pradeep Ravikumar , Arindam Banerjee

Unstructured grid data are essential for modelling complex geometries and dynamics in computational physics. Yet, their inherent irregularity presents significant challenges for conventional machine learning (ML) techniques. This paper…

Demand forecasting in supply chain management (SCM) is critical for optimizing inventory, reducing waste, and improving customer satisfaction. Conventional approaches frequently neglect external influences like weather, festivities, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Anees Fatima , Mohammad Abdus Salam

This paper presents price prediction models using Machine Learning algorithms augmented with Superforecasters predictions, aimed at enhancing investment decisions. Five Machine Learning models are built, including Bidirectional LSTM, ARIMA,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-03 Anishka Chauhan , Pratham Mayur , Yeshwanth Sai Gokarakonda , Pooriya Jamie , Naman Mehrotra

Various studies have shown the advantages of using Machine Learning (ML) techniques for analog and digital IC design automation and optimization. Data scarcity is still an issue for electronic designs, while training highly accurate ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Prasha Srivastava , Pawan Kumar , Zia Abbas

We inspect how accurate machine learning (ML) is at forecasting realized variance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index constituents. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, and neural networks, to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Kim Christensen , Mathias Siggaard , Bezirgen Veliyev

While previous works have shown that machine learning (ML) can improve the prediction accuracy of coarse-grid climate models, these ML-augmented methods are more vulnerable to irregular inputs than the traditional physics-based models they…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-28 Clayton Sanford , Anna Kwa , Oliver Watt-Meyer , Spencer Clark , Noah Brenowitz , Jeremy McGibbon , Christopher Bretherton

In modern business processes, the amount of data collected has increased substantially in recent years. Because this data can potentially yield valuable insights, automated knowledge extraction based on process mining has been proposed,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Riza Velioglu , Jan Philip Göpfert , André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Fraud detection is a challenging task due to the changing nature of fraud patterns over time and the limited availability of fraud examples to learn such sophisticated patterns. Thus, fraud detection with the aid of smart versions of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Mary Isangediok , Kelum Gajamannage

Accurate prediction with multimodal data-encompassing tabular, textual, and visual inputs or outputs-is fundamental to advancing analytics in diverse application domains. Traditional approaches often struggle to integrate heterogeneous data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xinyu Tian , Xiaotong Shen