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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Benedict Aaron Tjandra , Muhammed Razzak , Jannik Kossen , Kunal Handa , Yarin Gal

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Mobina Pournemat , Keivan Rezaei , Gaurang Sriramanan , Arman Zarei , Jiaxiang Fu , Yang Wang , Hamid Eghbalzadeh , Soheil Feizi

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

Large Language Models (LLMs) store an extensive amount of factual knowledge obtained from vast collections of text. To effectively utilize these models for downstream tasks, it is crucial to have reliable methods for measuring their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Pouya Pezeshkpour

We study how large language models (LLMs) reason about memorized knowledge through simple binary relations such as equality ($=$), inequality ($<$), and inclusion ($\subset$). Unlike in-context reasoning, the axioms (e.g., $a < b, b < c$)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Jonathan Shaki , Emanuele La Malfa , Michael Wooldridge , Sarit Kraus

Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment. Current approaches, which either provide a single uncertainty score or rely on the classical aleatoric-epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aditya Taparia , Ransalu Senanayake , Kowshik Thopalli , Vivek Narayanaswamy

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Human users increasingly communicate with large language models (LLMs), but LLMs suffer from frequent overconfidence in their output, even when its accuracy is questionable, which undermines their trustworthiness and perceived legitimacy.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Dennis Ulmer , Alexandra Lorson , Ivan Titov , Christian Hardmeier

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrably capable of cross-lingual transfer, but can produce inconsistent output when prompted with the same queries written in different languages. To understand how language models are able to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Zheng Wei Lim , Alham Fikri Aji , Trevor Cohn

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Zhangyue Yin , Qiushi Sun , Qipeng Guo , Jiawen Wu , Xipeng Qiu , Xuanjing Huang

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Petr Sychev , Andrey Goncharov , Daniil Vyazhev , Edvard Khalafyan , Alexey Zaytsev

Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations. While several studies have shown that models encode uncertainty in their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Sunwoo Kim , Haneul Yoo , Alice Oh

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to produce very high-quality tests and responses to our queries. But how much can we trust this generated text? In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty quantification in LLMs. We propose a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Muhammad Mubashar , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu