Related papers: Risk Aversion in Non-Ergodic Systems
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a…
Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…
Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory cannot account for this pattern unless under restrictive…
Under mean-variance-utility framework, we propose a new portfolio selection model, which allows wealth and time both have influences on risk aversion in the process of investment. We solved the model under a game theoretic framework and…
Decades of scientific inquiry have sought to understand how evolution fosters cooperation, a concept seemingly at odds with the belief that evolution should produce rational, self-interested individuals. Most previous work has focused on…
Large dynamic economies with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks are central to many important applications, yet their equilibrium analysis remains computationally challenging. This is because the standard solution approach, rational…
Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can…
An evolving population, in which individual members (`agents') adapt their behaviour according to past experience, is of central importance to many disciplines. Because of their limited knowledge and capabilities, agents are forced to make…
Advanced reasoning models with agentic capabilities (AI agents) are deployed to interact with humans and to solve sequential decision-making problems under (approximate) utility functions and internal models. When such problems have…
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly adopted as tool-using agents that can plan, observe their environment, and take actions over extended time periods. This evolution challenges current evaluation practices where the AI…
Diversification is the typical investment strategy of risk-averse agents. However, non-diversified positions that allocate all resources to a single asset, state of the world or revenue stream are common too. We show that whenever finitely…
The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…
We introduce an evolutionary game on hypergraphs in which decisions between a risky alternative and a safe one are taken in social groups of different sizes. The model naturally reproduces choice shifts, namely the differences between the…
Models in evolutionary game theory traditionally assume symmetric interactions in homogeneous environments. Here, we consider populations evolving in a heterogeneous environment, which consists of patches of different qualities that are…
The risk-sensitive foraging theory formulated in terms of the (daily) energy budget rule has been influential in behavioural ecology as well as other disciplines. Predicting risk-aversion on positive budgets and risk-proneness on negative…
Selection shapes all kinds of behaviors, including how we make decisions under uncertainty. The risk attitude reflected from it should be simple, flexible, yet consistent. In this paper we engaged evolutionary dynamics to find the decision…
The emergence of collective cooperation in competitive environments is a well-known phenomenon in biology, economics, and social systems. While most evolutionary game models focus on the evolution of strategies for a fixed game, how…
Traditional evolutionary game theory describes how certain strategy spreads throughout the system where individual player imitates the most successful strategy among its neighborhood. Accordingly, player doesn't have own authority to change…