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This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Experimental design is central to science and engineering. A ubiquitous challenge is how to maximize the value of information obtained from expensive or constrained experimental settings. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Sofia Mäkinen , Andrew B. Duncan , Tapio Helin

Bayesian optimisation is a sample-efficient search methodology that holds great promise for accelerating drug and materials discovery programs. A frequently-overlooked modelling consideration in Bayesian optimisation strategies however, is…

Learning to move is a primary goal for animals and robots, where ensuring safety is often important when optimizing control policies on the embodied systems. For complex tasks such as the control of human or humanoid control, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Yunyue Wei , Zeji Yi , Hongda Li , Saraswati Soedarmadji , Yanan Sui

Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into…

Environmental processes resolved at a sufficiently small scale in space and time will inevitably display non-stationary behavior. Such processes are both challenging to model and computationally expensive when the data size is large.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-21 Amanda Lenzi , Stefano Castruccio , Haavard Rue , Marc G. Genton

We present a method for finding optimal controllers for unknown, time-varying, dynamic systems which can be re-initialized from a given initial condition repeatedly, in which the performance measure is available for sampling with noise, but…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-08-16 Alexander Scheinker , David Scheinker

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

This paper considers Bayesian optimization (BO) for problems with known outer problem structure. In contrast to the classic BO setting, where the objective function itself is unknown and needs to be iteratively estimated from noisy…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Katrin Baumgärtner , Moritz Diehl

Using Bayesian experimental design techniques, we have shown that for a single two-level quantum mechanical system under strong (projective) measurement, the dynamical parameters of a model Hamiltonian can be estimated with exponentially…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-06-05 Christopher Ferrie , Christopher E. Granade , D. G. Cory

Correctly setting the parameters of a production machine is essential to improve product quality, increase efficiency, and reduce production costs while also supporting sustainability goals. Identifying optimal parameters involves an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-24 Philipp Wagner , Tobias Nagel , Philipp Leube , Marco F. Huber

Maximizing a target variable as an operational objective within a structural causal model is a fundamental problem. Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) approaches typically achieve this either by performing interventions that modify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Shaogang Ren , Zihao Wang , Yuzhou Chen , Xiaoning Qian

Many real world scientific and industrial applications require optimizing multiple competing black-box objectives. When the objectives are expensive-to-evaluate, multi-objective Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular approach because of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Samuel Daulton , David Eriksson , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Scott Sussex , Pier Giuseppe Sessa , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

Control algorithms such as model predictive control (MPC) and state estimators rely on a number of different parameters. The performance of the closed loop usually depends on the correct setting of these parameters. Tuning is often done…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-15 David Stenger , Muzaffer Ay , Dirk Abel

Bayesian Optimization aims at optimizing an unknown non-convex/concave function that is costly to evaluate. We are interested in application scenarios where concurrent function evaluations are possible. Under such a setting, BO could choose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-02 Javad Azimi , Ali Jalali , Xiaoli Fern

Sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design (SBOED) for PDE-governed inverse problems is computationally challenging, especially for infinite-dimensional random field parameters. High-fidelity approaches require repeated forward and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Kaichen Shen , Peng Chen