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Researchers are often interested in using longitudinal data to estimate the causal effects of hypothetical time-varying treatment interventions on the mean or risk of a future outcome. Standard regression/conditioning methods for…

The g-formula can be used to estimate causal effects of sustained treatment strategies using observational data under the identifying assumptions of consistency, positivity, and exchangeability. The non-iterative conditional expectation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-30 Sophia M Rein , Jing Li , Miguel Hernan , Andrew Beam

Causal mediation analysis of observational data is an important tool for investigating the potential causal effects of medications on disease-related risk factors, and on time-to-death (or disease progression) through these risk factors.…

The Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model is an ensemble method extensively and successfully used in regression tasks due to its consistently strong predictive performance and its ability to quantify uncertainty. BART combines…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Mateus Maia , Keefe Murphy , Andrew C. Parnell

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

Causal inference with observational longitudinal data and time-varying exposures is often complicated by time-dependent confounding and attrition. The G-computation formula is one approach for estimating a causal effect in this setting. The…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-14 Maria Josefsson , Michael J. Daniels

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Enakshi Saha

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

Variable selection is an important statistical problem. This problem becomes more challenging when the candidate predictors are of mixed type (e.g. continuous and binary) and impact the response variable in nonlinear and/or non-additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Chuji Luo , Michael J. Daniels

In many longitudinal studies, the covariate and response are often intermittently observed at irregular, mismatched and subject-specific times. How to deal with such data when covariate and response are observed asynchronously is an often…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-27 Hao Ran , Yang Bai

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a flexible machine learning algorithm capable of capturing nonlinearities between an outcome and covariates and interaction among covariates. We extend BART to a semiparametric regression…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-13 Bret Zeldow , Vincent Lo Re , Jason Roy

Longitudinal settings involving outcome, competing risks and censoring events occurring and recurring in continuous time are common in medical research, but are often analyzed with methods that do not allow for taking post-baseline…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Mark J. van der Laan

We discuss causal mediation analyses for survival data and propose a new approach based on the additive hazards model. The emphasis is on a dynamic point of view, that is, understanding how the direct and indirect effects develop over time.…

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric model for conditional distribution estimation using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The generative model we use is based on rejection sampling from a base model. Typical of BART models, our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-02 Yinpu Li , Antonio R. Linero , Jared S. Murray

Ensemble decision tree methods such as XGBoost, Random Forest, and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have gained enormous popularity in data science for their superior performance in machine learning regression and classification…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Shuren He , Huiyan Sang , Quan Zhou

Longitudinal causal inference is concerned with defining, identifying, and estimating the effect of a time-varying intervention on a time-varying outcome that is indexed by a follow-up time. In an observational study, Robins's generalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Herbert P. Susmann , Nicholas T. Williams , Richard Liu , Jessica G. Young , Iván Díaz

We introduce a numerically tractable formulation of Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The longitudinal process is modelled using generalised linear mixed models, while the survival process is modelled using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-23 Danilo Alvares , Francisco Javier Rubio
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