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Identifying the causal relationship among variables from observational data is an important yet challenging task. This work focuses on identifying the direct causes of an outcome and estimating their magnitude, i.e., learning the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Zhenyu Wang , Yifan Hu , Peter Bühlmann , Zijian Guo

Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-22 Rafael Oliveira , Lionel Ott , Fabio Ramos

Learning causal relationships between variables from data is a fundamental research area with many applications across disciplines. Most existing causal discovery algorithms rely on the assumptions that (i) the underlying system is acyclic,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Alpar Turkoglu , Muralikrishnna G. Sethuraman , Faramarz Fekri

Determining the causal structure of a set of variables is critical for both scientific inquiry and decision-making. However, this is often challenging in practice due to limited interventional data. Given that randomized experiments are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Karren Yang , Karthik Shanmugam , Caroline Uhler

Distributionally robust optimization tackles out-of-sample issues like overfitting and distribution shifts by adopting an adversarial approach over a range of possible data distributions, known as the ambiguity set. To balance conservatism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Golnoosh Farnadi , Samira Samadi

Recursive max-linear vectors model causal dependence between its components by expressing each node variable as a max-linear function of its parental nodes in a directed acyclic graph and some exogenous innovation. Motivated by extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Claudia Klüppelberg , Mario Krali

Bayesian optimization (BO) methods choose sample points by optimizing an acquisition function derived from a statistical model of the objective. These acquisition functions are chosen to balance sampling regions with predicted good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Darian Nwankwo , David Bindel

We propose a new policy representation based on score-based diffusion models (SDMs). We apply our new policy representation in the domain of Goal-Conditioned Imitation Learning (GCIL) to learn general-purpose goal-specified policies from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Moritz Reuss , Maximilian Li , Xiaogang Jia , Rudolf Lioutikov

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

Bayesian optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expensive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Motivated by investigating spatio-temporal patterns of the distribution of continuous variables, we consider describing the conditional distribution function of the response variable incorporating spatio-temporal components given…

A new causal discovery method, Structural Agnostic Modeling (SAM), is presented in this paper. Leveraging both conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries, SAM aims to find the underlying causal structure from observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-26 Diviyan Kalainathan , Olivier Goudet , Isabelle Guyon , David Lopez-Paz , Michèle Sebag

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used method for data-driven optimization that generally relies on zeroth-order data of objective function to construct probabilistic surrogate models. These surrogates guide the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Georgios Makrygiorgos , Joshua Hang Sai Ip , Ali Mesbah

Recommendation systems (RS) aim to provide personalized content, but they face a challenge in unbiased learning due to selection bias, where users only interact with items they prefer. This bias leads to a distorted representation of user…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Shuqiang Zhang , Yuchao Zhang , Jinkun Chen , Haochen Sui

Existing Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods typically balance exploration and exploitation to optimize costly objective functions. However, these methods often suffer from a significant one-step bias, which may lead to convergence towards…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ruiyao Miao , Junren Xiao , Shiya Tsang , Hui Xiong , Yingnian Wu

Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

A Random Graph is a random object which take its values in the space of graphs. We take advantage of the expressibility of graphs in order to model the uncertainty about the existence of causal relationships within a given set of variables.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Mauricio Gonzalez-Soto , Ivan R. Feliciano-Avelino , L. Enrique Sucar , Hugo J. Escalante Balderas

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a successful methodology to optimize black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. While traditional methods optimize each black-box function in isolation, there has been recent interest in speeding up BO…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-30 Valerio Perrone , Huibin Shen , Matthias Seeger , Cedric Archambeau , Rodolphe Jenatton

Learning Bayesian networks from raw data can help provide insights into the relationships between variables. While real data often contains a mixture of discrete and continuous-valued variables, many Bayesian network structure learning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-19 Yi-Chun Chen , Tim Allan Wheeler , Mykel John Kochenderfer

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios, such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-07 Ryu Tadokoro , Tsukasa Takagi , Shin-ichi Maeda