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In this work, we explore modeling change points in time-series data using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs). We propose a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder (VAE)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yousef El-Laham , Zhongchang Sun , Haibei Zhu , Tucker Balch , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Earth system modeling presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing: capturing complex, multiscale nonlinear dynamics in computationally efficient models while minimizing forecast errors caused by necessary simplifications. Even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yongquan Qu , Matthieu Blanke , Sara Shamekh , Pierre Gentine

Large, multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets are omnipresent in modern science and engineering. An effective framework for handling such data are Gaussian process deep generative models (GP-DGMs), which employ GP priors over the latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Matthew Ashman , Jonathan So , Will Tebbutt , Vincent Fortuin , Michael Pearce , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian processes (GPs), implemented through multivariate Gaussian distributions for a finite collection of data, are the most popular approach in small-area spatial statistical modelling. In this context they are used to encode…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Elizaveta Semenova , Yidan Xu , Adam Howes , Theo Rashid , Samir Bhatt , Swapnil Mishra , Seth Flaxman

We propose a new class of physics-informed neural networks, called physics-informed Variational Autoencoder (PI-VAE), to solve stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or inverse problems involving SDEs. In these problems the governing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-09 Weiheng Zhong , Hadi Meidani

Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has been broadly used in engineering problems for field reconstruction and prediction by performing a weighted combination of multiple sources of noisy data. In recent years, the integration of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Sibo Cheng , Che Liu , Yike Guo , Rossella Arcucci

Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…

In this paper we first present a novel operator extrapolation (OE) method for solving deterministic variational inequality (VI) problems. Similar to the gradient (operator) projection method, OE updates one single search sequence by solving…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Georgios Kotsalis , Guanghui Lan , Tianjiao Li

One of the open problems in scientific computing is the long-time integration of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We address this problem by taking advantage of recent advances in scientific machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Dongkun Zhang , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

We present the mathematical framework of a Domain Decomposition (DD) aproach based on Parallel-in-Time methods (PinT-based approach) for solving the 4D-Var Data Assimilation (DA) model. The main outcome of the proposed DD PinT-based…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-07-20 Luisa D'Amore , Rosalba Cacciapuoti

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Oscar Key , So Takao , Daniel Giles , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Anthony Frion , David S Greenberg

To quantify uncertainties in inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs), we formulate them into statistical inference problems using Bayes' formula. Recently, well-justified infinite-dimensional Bayesian analysis methods have…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Junxiong Jia , Yanni Wu , Peijun Li , Deyu Meng

Starting from limited measurements of a turbulent flow, data assimilation (DA) attempts to estimate all the spatio-temporal scales of motion. Success is dependent on whether the system is observable from the measurements, or how much of the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-02-16 Andrew Cleary , Qi Wang , Tamer A. Zaki

We interpret the 4D-var data assimilation problem for a parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) in the context of optimal control and revisit the process of deriving optimality conditions for an initial control problem. This is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Carmen Gräßle , Jannis Marquardt

This study examines the challenges of modeling complex and noisy data related to socioeconomic factors over time, with a focus on data from various districts in Odisha, India. Traditional time-series models struggle to capture both trends…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Sandeep Kumar Samota , Reema Gupta , Snehashish Chakraverty

A non-intrusive data assimilation methodology is developed to improve the statistical predictions of large-eddy simulations (LES). The ensemble-variational (EnVar) approach aims to minimize a cost function that is defined as the discrepancy…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-09-28 Vincent Mons , Yifan Du , Tamer A. Zaki

Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-23 Rem-Sophia Mouradi , Cédric Goeury , Olivier Thual , Fabrice Zaoui , Pablo Tassi

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

Developing neural operators that accurately predict the behavior of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) across unseen parameter regimes is crucial for robust generalization in scientific and engineering applications.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Eva van Tegelen , Taniya Kapoor , George A. K. van Voorn , Peter van Heijster , Ioannis N. Athanasiadis