Related papers: Bringing statistics to storylines: rare event samp…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Climate science needs more efficient ways to study high-impact, low-probability extreme events, which are rare by definition and costly to simulate in large numbers. Rare event sampling (RES) and ensemble boosting use small perturbations to…

Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…

Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…

The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that…

Transitional localised turbulence in shear flows is known to either decay to an absorbing laminar state or proliferate via splitting. The average passage times from one state to the other depend super-exponentially on the Reynolds number…

Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…

We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…

The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…

Estimating rare events in complex systems is a key challenge in reliability analysis. The challenge grows in multimodal problems, where traditional methods often rely on a small set of design points and risk overlooking critical failure…