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Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Julius von Kügelgen , Abdirisak Mohamed , Sander Beckers

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are methods for generating an alternative scenario that produces a different desirable outcome. For example, if a student is predicted to fail a course, then counterfactual explanations can provide the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-09 Bevan I. Smith

Counterfactual explanations elucidate algorithmic decisions by pointing to scenarios that would have led to an alternative, desired outcome. Giving insight into the model's behavior, they hint users towards possible actions and give grounds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-05 Susanne Dandl , Kristin Blesch , Timo Freiesleben , Gunnar König , Jan Kapar , Bernd Bischl , Marvin Wright

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Pirmin Lemberger , Antoine Saillenfest

Providing explanations about how machine learning algorithms work and/or make particular predictions is one of the main tools that can be used to improve their trusworthiness, fairness and robustness. Among the most intuitive type of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-12 Rubén Ruiz-Torrubiano

Counterfactual explanations provide a potentially significant solution to the Explainable AI (XAI) problem, but good, native counterfactuals have been shown to rarely occur in most datasets. Hence, the most popular methods generate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-25 Barry Smyth , Mark T Keane

Counterfactuals answer questions of what would have been observed under altered circumstances and can therefore offer valuable insights. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michael Muehlebach

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

Counterfactual explanations are one of the prominent eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, and suggest changes to input data that could alter predictions, leading to more favourable outcomes. Existing counterfactual methods…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Marco Montali , Massimiliano Ronzani

Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Yahya Aalaila , Gerrit Großmann , Sumantrak Mukherjee , Jonas Wahl , Sebastian Vollmer

Counterfactual reasoning requires predicting how alternative events, contrary to what actually happened, might have resulted in different outcomes. Despite being considered a necessary component of AI-complete systems, few resources have…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-09-13 Lianhui Qin , Antoine Bosselut , Ari Holtzman , Chandra Bhagavatula , Elizabeth Clark , Yejin Choi

In many applications, it is important to be able to explain the decisions of machine learning systems. An increasingly popular approach has been to seek to provide \emph{counterfactual instance explanations}. These specify close possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Adam White , Artur d'Avila Garcez

Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Rafael Poyiadzi , Kacper Sokol , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Tijl De Bie , Peter Flach

Counterfactual explanations are emerging as an attractive option for providing recourse to individuals adversely impacted by algorithmic decisions. As they are deployed in critical applications (e.g. law enforcement, financial lending), it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Dylan Slack , Sophie Hilgard , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sameer Singh

In recent years, various machine and deep learning architectures have been successfully introduced to the field of predictive process analytics. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these algorithms poses a significant challenge for human…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Alexander Stevens , Chun Ouyang , Johannes De Smedt , Catarina Moreira

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

In the environment of fair lending laws and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the ability to explain a model's prediction is of paramount importance. High quality explanations are the first step in assessing fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Rachana Balasubramanian , Samuel Sharpe , Brian Barr , Jason Wittenbach , C. Bayan Bruss

Causality is vital for understanding true cause-and-effect relationships between variables within predictive models, rather than relying on mere correlations, making it highly relevant in the field of Explainable AI. In an automated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Arturo Fredes , Jordi Vitria

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

Transparency is a fundamental requirement for decision making systems when these should be deployed in the real world. It is usually achieved by providing explanations of the system's behavior. A prominent and intuitive type of explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 André Artelt , Valerie Vaquet , Riza Velioglu , Fabian Hinder , Johannes Brinkrolf , Malte Schilling , Barbara Hammer
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