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Matching methods are widely used to reduce confounding effects in observational studies, but conventional approaches often treat all covariates as equally important, which can result in poor performance when covariates differ in their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-01 Hongzhe Zhang , Jiasheng Shi , Jing Huang

When machine learning supports decision-making in safety-critical systems, it is important to verify and understand the reasons why a particular output is produced. Although feature importance calculation approaches assist in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Divish Rengasamy , Benjamin Rothwell , Grazziela Figueredo

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

As opaque black-box predictive models become more prevalent, the need to develop interpretations for these models is of great interest. The concept of variable importance and Shapley values are interpretability measures that applies to any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-10 Zexuan Sun , Garvesh Raskutti

Existing progress in object keypoint estimation primarily benefits from the conventional supervised learning paradigm based on numerous data labeled with pre-defined keypoints. However, these well-trained models can hardly detect the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Mingfu Liang , Jiahuan Zhou , Xu Zou , Ying Wu

Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-01 Anqi Liu , Rizal Fathony , Brian D. Ziebart

Transfer learning enhances prediction accuracy on a target distribution by leveraging data from a source distribution, demonstrating significant benefits in various applications. This paper introduces a novel dissimilarity measure that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Mitsuhiro Fujikawa , Yohei Akimoto , Jun Sakuma , Kazuto Fukuchi

Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Matteo Zecchin , Fredrik Hellström , Sangwoo Park , Shlomo Shamai , Osvaldo Simeone

These notes provide a self-contained introduction to kernel methods and their geometric foundations in machine learning. Starting from the construction of Hilbert spaces, we develop the theory of positive definite kernels, reproducing…

A distribution shift between the training and test data can severely harm performance of machine learning models. Importance weighting addresses this issue by assigning different weights to data points during training. We argue that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-17 Floris Holstege , Bram Wouters , Noud van Giersbergen , Cees Diks

Recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms making use of Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization as a core component have shown outstanding performance. Yet, only little is understood theoretically about why KL regularization helps, so far.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Nino Vieillard , Tadashi Kozuno , Bruno Scherrer , Olivier Pietquin , Rémi Munos , Matthieu Geist

Causal random forests provide efficient estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects. However, forest algorithms are also well-known for their black-box nature, and therefore, do not characterize how input variables are involved in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Clément Bénard , Julie Josse

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

Matrix approximations are a key element in large-scale algebraic machine learning approaches. The recently proposed method MEKA (Si et al., 2014) effectively employs two common assumptions in Hilbert spaces: the low-rank property of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Simon Heilig , Maximilian Münch , Frank-Michael Schleif

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-02 Sunay Joshi , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Edgar Dobriban , Hamed Hassani

We study the risk (i.e. generalization error) of Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) for a kernel $K$ with ridge $\lambda>0$ and i.i.d. observations. For this, we introduce two objects: the Signal Capture Threshold (SCT) and the Kernel Alignment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-18 Arthur Jacot , Berfin Şimşek , Francesco Spadaro , Clément Hongler , Franck Gabriel

Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-27 Shinpei Imori , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

An importance weight quantifies the relative importance of one example over another, coming up in applications of boosting, asymmetric classification costs, reductions, and active learning. The standard approach for dealing with importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-06-21 Nikos Karampatziakis , John Langford

We consider the problem of estimating covariance and precision matrices, and their associated discriminant coefficients, from normal data when the rank of the covariance matrix is strictly smaller than its dimension and the available sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-09 Didier Chételat , Martin T. Wells

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Zachary Nado , Shreyas Padhy , D. Sculley , Alexander D'Amour , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Jasper Snoek
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