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Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

Time series forecasting holds significant value in various domains such as economics, traffic, energy, and AIOps, as accurate predictions facilitate informed decision-making. However, the existing Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiangfei Qiu , Xingjian Wu , Hanyin Cheng , Xvyuan Liu , Chenjuan Guo , Jilin Hu , Bin Yang

Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully-resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-29 Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Alexis Charalampopoulos , Shixuan Zhang , Bryce Harrop , Ruby Leung , Themistoklis Sapsis

Accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds are of high importance for many applications. Such forecasts are usually generated by ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which however can be biased and have errors in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Jakob Benjamin Wessel , Christopher A. T. Ferro , Gavin R. Evans , Frank Kwasniok

Machine learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Saumya Sinha , Brandon Benton , Patrick Emami

Poor air quality can have a significant impact on human health. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air quality forecasting guidance is challenged by the increasing presence of extreme air quality events due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Sophia Hamer , Jennifer Sleeman , Ivanka Stajner

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Christopher J. Paciorek , Daniel Cooley

Techniques for making future predictions based upon the present and past data, has always been an area with direct application to various real life problems. We are discussing a similar problem in this paper. The problem statement is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-19 Devendra Swami , Alay Dilipbhai Shah , Subhrajeet K B Ray

Numerical weather forecasting using high-resolution physical models often requires extensive computational resources on supercomputers, which diminishes their wide usage in most real-life applications. As a remedy, applying deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Selim Furkan Tekin , Arda Fazla , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for weather forecasting, yet their ability to predict extreme weather events remains limited. Existing approaches either focus on general weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Hang Ni , Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu

Extreme weather amplified by climate change is causing increasingly devastating impacts across the globe. The current use of physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) limits accuracy due to high computational cost and strict…

While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Montgomery Flora , Samuel Varga , Corey Potvin , Noah Lang

Machine learning (ML) can represent processes unresolved in coarse-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) by learning from high-resolution climate data. Such ML parameterization approaches have been primarily tested in idealized setups where…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Erisa Ismaili , Robert C. Jnglin Wills , Tom Beucler

An exponential growth in computing power, which has brought more sophisticated and higher resolution simulations of the climate system, and an exponential increase in observations since the first weather satellite was put in orbit, are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-20 Annalisa Bracco , Julien Brajard , Henk A. Dijkstra , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Christian Lessig , Claire Monteleoni

Data stream forecasts are essential inputs for decision making at digital platforms. Machine learning algorithms are appealing candidates to produce such forecasts. Yet, digital platforms require a large-scale forecast framework that can…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-18 Jeroen Rombouts , Ines Wilms

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Francesco Ragone , Pierre Borgnat , Patrice Abry , Freddy Bouchet

In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have become a powerful tool for improving the accuracy of predictions and decision-making. Machine learning technologies have begun to penetrate all areas, including the real estate sector.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Oleh Pastukh , Viktor Khomyshyn

Weather forecasting is a vitally important tool for tasks ranging from planning day to day activities to disaster response planning. However, modeling weather has proven to be challenging task due to its chaotic and unpredictable nature.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Lawrence Zhang , Adam Yang , Rodz Andrie Amor , Bryan Zhang , Dhruv Rao

Aiming to estimate extreme precipitation forecast quantiles, we propose a nonparametric regression model that features a constant extreme value index. Using local linear quantile regression and an extrapolation technique from extreme value…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Jasper Velthoen , Juan-Juan Cai , Geurt Jongbloed , Maurice Schmeits