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An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Ross D. Shachter

We study the continuum version of Sinai's problem of a random walker in a random force field in one dimension. A method of stochastic representations is used to represent various probability distributions in this problem (mean probability…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Alain Comtet , David S. Dean

Algorithms for generating random numbers that follow a gamma distribution with shape parameter less than unity are proposed. Acceptance-rejection algorithms are developed, based on the generalized exponential distribution. The squeeze…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-18 Seiji Zenitani

We present a heuristic derivation of the first passage time exponent for the integral of a random walk [Y. G. Sinai, Theor. Math. Phys. {\bf 90}, 219 (1992)]. Building on this derivation, we construct an estimation scheme to understand the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 J. M. Schwarz , Ron Maimon

Simulating from a gamma distribution with small shape parameter is a challenging problem. Towards an efficient method, we obtain a limiting distribution for a suitably normalized gamma distribution when the shape parameter tends to zero.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-08 Chuanhai Liu , Ryan Martin , Nick Syring

Motivated by a novel method for granular segregation, we analyze the one dimensional drift-diffusion between two absorbing boundaries. The time evolution of the probability distribution and the rate of absorption are given by explicit…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Zeno Farkas , Tamas Fulop

We establish general moment estimates for the discrete and continuous exit times of a general It\^o process in terms of the distance to the boundary. These estimates serve as intermediate steps to obtain strong convergence results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-10 Bruno Bouchard , Stefan Geiss , Emmanuel Gobet

In this work, we delve into the nonparametric empirical Bayes theory and approximate the classical Bayes estimator by a truncation of the generalized Laguerre series and then estimate its coefficients by minimizing the prior risk of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Rida Benhaddou , Matthew Connell

We present general methods to exactly calculate mean-first passage quantities on self-similar networks defined recursively. In particular, we calculate the mean first-passage time and the splitting probabilities associated to a source and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 B. Meyer , E. Agliari , O. Bénichou , R. Voituriez

We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Luis F. Lafuerza , Raul Toral

We study the crossing time statistic of diffusing point particles between the two ends of expanding and narrowing two-dimensional conical channels under a transverse external gravitational field. The theoretical expression for the mean…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-11 Ivan Pompa-Garcia , Rodrigo Castilla , Ralf Metzler , Leonardo Dagdug

Given a discrete-time non-lattice supercritical branching random walk in $\mathbb{R}^d$, we investigate its first passage time to a shifted unit ball of a distance $x$ from the origin, conditioned upon survival. We provide precise…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Jose Blanchet , Zhenyuan Zhang

The cover-time problem, i.e., time to visit every site in a system, is one of the key issues of random walks with wide applications in natural, social, and engineered systems. Addressing the full distribution of cover times for random walk…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-01 Jia-Qi Dong , Wen-Hui Han , Yisen Wang , Xiao-Song Chen , Liang Huang

The generalized master equation or the equivalent continuous time random walk equations can be used to compute the macroscopic first passage time distribution (FPTD) of a complex stochastic system from short-term microscopic simulation…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 David Shalloway , Anton Faradjian

We consider fast oscillating perturbations of dynamical systems in regions where one can introduce action-angle type coordinates. In an appropriate time scale, a diffusion approximation of the first-integrals evolution is described under…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 M. I. Freidlin , A. D. Wentzell

The generalized gamma convolutions class of distributions appeared in Thorin's work while looking for the infinite divisibility of the log-Normal and Pareto distributions. Although these distributions have been extensively studied in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Oskar Laverny , Esterina Masiello , Véronique Maume-Deschamps , Didier Rullière

We report some additional examples of explicit solutions to an inverse first-passage place problem for one-dimensional diffusions with jumps, introduced in a previous paper. If $X(t)$ is a one-dimensional diffusion with jumps, starting from…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-22 Mario Abundo

We study lower and upper bounds for the density of a diffusion process in ${\mathbb{R}}^n$ in a small (but not asymptotic) time, say $\delta$. We assume that the diffusion coefficients $\sigma_1,\ldots,\sigma_d$ may degenerate at the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-03 Vlad Bally , Lucia Caramellino , Paolo Pigato

We propose a method for inferring the conditional indepen- dence graph (CIG) of a high-dimensional discrete-time Gaus- sian vector random process from finite-length observations. Our approach does not rely on a parametric model (such as,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-11 Alexander Jung , Reinhard Heckel , Helmut Bölcskei , Franz Hlawatsch

We investigate the first-passage properties of nearest-neighbor hopping on a finite interval with disordered hopping rates. We develop an approach that relies on the backward equation, in conjunction with probability generating functions,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-14 James Holehouse , S. Redner
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