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Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Ali Baheri , Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi

In the paraphrase generation task, source sentences often contain phrases that should not be altered. Which phrases, however, can be context dependent and can vary by application. Our solution to this challenge is to provide the user with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Mohan Zhang , Luchen Tan , Zhengkai Tu , Zihang Fu , Kun Xiong , Ming Li , Jimmy Lin

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Natural Language Inference is an important task for Natural Language Understanding. It is concerned with classifying the logical relation between two sentences. In this paper, we propose several text generative neural networks for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-28 Janez Starc , Dunja Mladenić

Predicting the response at an unobserved location is a fundamental problem in spatial statistics. Given the difficulty in modeling spatial dependence, especially in non-stationary cases, model-based prediction intervals are at risk of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-09 Huiying Mao , Ryan Martin , Brian Reich

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Recent advancements in neural language modelling make it possible to rapidly generate vast amounts of human-sounding text. The capabilities of humans and automatic discriminators to detect machine-generated text have been a large source of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-11 Daphne Ippolito , Daniel Duckworth , Chris Callison-Burch , Douglas Eck

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Narrative generation is an open-ended NLP task in which a model generates a story given a prompt. The task is similar to neural response generation for chatbots; however, innovations in response generation are often not applied to narrative…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Alexandra DeLucia , Aaron Mueller , Xiang Lisa Li , João Sedoc

Large pre-trained language models (LMs) have been shown to perform surprisingly well when fine-tuned on tasks that require commonsense and world knowledge. However, in end-to-end architectures, it is difficult to explain what is the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-04-14 Veronica Latcinnik , Jonathan Berant

Recent neural sequence-to-sequence models with a copy mechanism have achieved remarkable progress in various text generation tasks. These models addressed out-of-vocabulary problems and facilitated the generation of rare words. However, the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Sanghyuk Choi , Jeong-in Hwang , Hyungjong Noh , Yeonsoo Lee

We performed a billion locality sensitive hash comparisons between artificially generated data samples to answer the critical question - can we reproduce the results of generative AI models? Reproducibility is one of the pillars of…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Edward Kim , Isamu Isozaki , Naomi Sirkin , Michael Robson

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Leying Guan

We propose a novel convolutional architecture, named $gen$CNN, for word sequence prediction. Different from previous work on neural network-based language modeling and generation (e.g., RNN or LSTM), we choose not to greedily summarize the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2015-04-27 Mingxuan Wang , Zhengdong Lu , Hang Li , Wenbin Jiang , Qun Liu

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès
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