Related papers: Return level estimations for extreme rainfall over…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…
High spatial resolution drought projections for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) have been examined in terms of duration, frequency, and severity of drought events. For this end, a set of regional climate simulations was completed using the…
Naveau et al. (2016) have recently developed a class of methods, based on extreme-value theory (EVT), for capturing low, moderate, and heavy rainfall simultaneously, without the need to choose a threshold typical to EVT methods. We analyse…
This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
This work investigates climate--projections over a transitional region between dry and wet climates, the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR GCMs…
In this study, we begin a comprehensive characterisation of temperature extremes in Ireland for the period 1981-2010. We produce return levels of anomalies of daily maximum temperature extremes for an area over Ireland, for the 30-year…
Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…
In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…
The monthly precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations for the period 1946--2012 from Serbia were used. To describe the behaviour of precipitation data at a specific location, it is necessary to identify the distribution that best…
The paper deals with the probabilistic estimates of extreme maximum rainfall (Annual basis) in the Ranchi, Jharkhand (India). Extreme Value Distribution family models are tried to capture the uncertainty of data and finally Generalized…
Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very…
A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…
Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools…
This paper presents an innovative approach to extreme precipitation nowcasting by employing Transformer-based generative models, namely NowcastingGPT with Extreme Value Loss (EVL) regularization. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset from the…
The total ionospheric content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was studied using data from two locations obtained both by GNSS receivers and an ionosonde. The principal component analysis applied to the TEC data allowed us to extract two…
The relationship between global warming and extreme rainfalls in Taiwan was examined in this study. Taiwan rainfall data from TCCIP, a project led by MOST, were analyzed. North Hemisphere reference temperature data from NCEI led by NOAA.…
This study evaluates the performance of 36 historical CMIP6 GCM trajectories (1979-2005) in reproducing atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula in the summer months (June-September) using the Lamb Weather Type (WT) classification…
We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…