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Baseline covariates in randomized experiments are often used in the estimation of treatment effects, for example, when estimating treatment effects within covariate-defined subgroups. In practice, however, covariate values may be missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Gauri Kamat , Jerome P. Reiter

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

When the primary outcome is difficult to collect, surrogate endpoint is typically used as a substitute. It is possible that for every individual, treatment has a positive effect on surrogate, and surrogate has a positive effect on primary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Linquan Ma , Yunjian Yin , Lan Liu , Zhi Geng

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures are increasingly collected as a means of measuring healthcare quality and value. The capability to predict such measures enables patient-provider shared decision making and the delivery of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Jaeyoung Park , Muxuan Liang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Xiang Zhong

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal effect of a treatment that is randomly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-05 Martin Huber , Kevin Kloiber , Lukáš Lafférs

In biomedical studies, estimating drug effects on chronic diseases requires a long follow-up period, which is difficult to meet in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The use of a short-term surrogate to replace the long-term outcome for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Wenjie Hu , Xiaohua Zhou , Peng Wu

Doubly robust estimators of causal effects are a popular means of estimating causal effects. Such estimators combine an estimate of the conditional mean of the outcome given treatment and confounders (the so-called outcome regression) with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-17 David Benkeser , Weixin Cai , Mark J van der Laan

The increased prevalence of observational data and the need to integrate information from multiple sources are critical challenges in contemporary data analysis. Record linkage is a widely used tool for combining datasets in the absence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Martin Slawski

High-quality labeled data are essential for reliable statistical inference, but are often limited by validation costs. While surrogate labels provide cost-effective alternatives, their noise can introduce non-negligible bias. To address…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Jianmin Chen , Huiyuan Wang , Thomas Lumley , Xiaowu Dai , Yong Chen

In modern clinical trials, there is immense pressure to use surrogate markers in place of an expensive or long-term primary outcome to make more timely decisions about treatment effectiveness. However, using a surrogate marker to test for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Rebecca Knowlton , Layla Parast

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), missing data can occur in various ways, including missing values in outcomes and baseline covariates at the individual or cluster level, or completely missing information for non-participants. Among the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Rui Wang

We consider the recovery of regression coefficients, denoted by $\boldsymbol{\beta}_0$, for a single index model (SIM) relating a binary outcome $Y$ to a set of possibly high dimensional covariates $\boldsymbol{X}$, based on a large but…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-03 Abhishek Chakrabortty , Matey Neykov , Raymond Carroll , Tianxi Cai

Surrogate models - also called emulators - are widely used to facilitate Bayesian inference in settings where computational costs preclude the use of standard posterior inference algorithms. Their deployment is now standard practice across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Andrew Gerard Roberts , Michael C. Dietze , Jonathan H. Huggins

In many randomized trials, outcomes such as essays or open-ended responses must be manually scored as a preliminary step to impact analysis, a process that is costly and limiting. Model-assisted estimation offers a way to combine surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Reagan Mozer , Nicole E. Pashley , Luke Miratrix

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens , Thai Pham , Stefan Wager

This paper develops a sensitivity analysis of the surrogacy assumption for the surrogate index approach in Athey et al. [2025b]. We introduce "Weighted Surrogate Indices (WSIs)," the analog of the surrogate index under the surrogacy…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Yanqin Fan , Carlos A. Manzanares , Hyeonseok Park , Yuan Qi

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

This paper is motivated by the analysis of a survey study of college student wellbeing before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A statistical challenge in well-being survey studies lies in that outcome variables are often…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-09 Shaobo Li , Zhaohu Fan , Ivy Liu , Philip S. Morrison , Dungang Liu

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus