Related papers: Continuous Treatment Effects with Surrogate Outcom…

Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach…

In many experimental and observational studies, the outcome of interest is often difficult or expensive to observe, reducing effective sample sizes for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) even when identifiable. We study how…

Surrogate markers offer the potential to reduce the burden of data collection by replacing costly or invasive primary outcomes with more accessible measurements, provided that they can faithfully indicate the effectiveness of a treatment.…

Evaluating treatment effects is critical in clinical trials but sometimes involves lengthy, invasive, or costly follow-up procedures. In these cases, surrogate markers, which provide intermediate measures of the long-term treatment effect,…

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

Given the long follow-up periods that are often required for treatment or intervention studies, the potential to use surrogate markers to decrease the required follow-up time is a very attractive goal. However, previous studies have shown…

A surrogate endpoint S in a clinical trial is an outcome that may be measured earlier or more easily than the true outcome of interest T. In this work, we extend causal inference approaches to validate such a surrogate using potential…

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods…

Policy makers typically face the problem of wanting to estimate the long-term effects of novel treatments, while only having historical data of older treatment options. We assume access to a long-term dataset where only past treatments were…

Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the…

In many empirical settings, directly observing a treatment variable may be infeasible although an error-prone surrogate measurement of the latter will often be available. Causal inference based solely on the surrogate measurement is…

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually use a surrogate marker to test for a treatment effect in a…

The primary benefit of identifying a valid surrogate marker is the ability to use it in a future trial to test for a treatment effect with shorter follow-up time or less cost. However, previous work has demonstrated potential heterogeneity…

We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while…

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…