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A multitude of explainability methods and associated fidelity performance metrics have been proposed to help better understand how modern AI systems make decisions. However, much of the current work has remained theoretical -- without much…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Julien Colin , Thomas Fel , Remi Cadene , Thomas Serre

Deep Learning is a state-of-the-art technique to make inference on extensive or complex data. As a black box model due to their multilayer nonlinear structure, Deep Neural Networks are often criticized to be non-transparent and their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-28 Vanessa Buhrmester , David Münch , Michael Arens

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger

In recent years, the use of sophisticated statistical models that influence decisions in domains of high societal relevance is on the rise. Although these models can often bring substantial improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Alfredo Carrillo , Luis F. Cantú , Alejandro Noriega

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is an emerging research field bringing transparency to highly complex and opaque machine learning (ML) models. Despite the development of a multitude of methods to explain the decisions of black-box…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Leander Weber , Sebastian Lapuschkin , Alexander Binder , Wojciech Samek

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), i.e., the development of more transparent and interpretable AI models, has gained increased traction over the last few years. This is due to the fact that, in conjunction with their growth into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-14 Erika Puiutta , Eric MSP Veith

Explainability techniques for data-driven predictive models based on artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms allow us to better understand the operation of such systems and help to hold them accountable. New transparency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Kacper Sokol , Alexander Hepburn , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Peter Flach

Complex black-box predictive models may have high accuracy, but opacity causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, interpretable models require more work related to feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-01 Alicja Gosiewska , Aleksandra Gacek , Piotr Lubon , Przemyslaw Biecek

As machine learning algorithms are increasingly applied to high impact yet high risk tasks, such as medical diagnosis or autonomous driving, it is critical that researchers can explain how such algorithms arrived at their predictions. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-06 Ruth Fong , Andrea Vedaldi

Complex black-box predictive models may have high performance, but lack of interpretability causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, achieving satisfactory accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Alicja Gosiewska , Przemyslaw Biecek

Interpretability, trustworthiness, and usability are key considerations in high-stake security applications, especially when utilizing deep learning models. While these models are known for their high accuracy, they behave as black boxes in…

Machine learning algorithms enable advanced decision making in contemporary intelligent systems. Research indicates that there is a tradeoff between their model performance and explainability. Machine learning models with higher performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Lukas-Valentin Herm , Kai Heinrich , Jonas Wanner , Christian Janiesch

This paper provides robust, new evidence on the causal drivers of market troughs. We demonstrate that conclusions about these triggers are critically sensitive to model specification, moving beyond restrictive linear models with a flexible…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-09 Peilin Rao , Randall R. Rojas

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Hanjing Wang , Dhiraj Joshi , Shiqiang Wang , Qiang Ji

Machine learning models have had discernible achievements in a myriad of applications. However, most of these models are black-boxes, and it is obscure how the decisions are made by them. This makes the models unreliable and untrustworthy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-23 Raha Moraffah , Mansooreh Karami , Ruocheng Guo , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

How can we explain the predictions of a black-box model? In this paper, we use influence functions -- a classic technique from robust statistics -- to trace a model's prediction through the learning algorithm and back to its training data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-01 Pang Wei Koh , Percy Liang

Large language models often generate confident but incorrect answers rather than abstaining when uncertain. This problem is particularly acute for small language models (SLMs), where computational constraints and autonomous operation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Ashwath Vaithinathan Aravindan , Mayank Kejriwal