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As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

Variational inference (VI) is a widely used framework in Bayesian estimation. For most of the non-Gaussian statistical models, it is infeasible to find an analytically tractable solution to estimate the posterior distributions of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-31 Zhanyu Ma , Jalil Taghia , Jun Guo

Sparse high dimensional graphical model selection is a popular topic in contemporary machine learning. To this end, various useful approaches have been proposed in the context of $\ell_1$-penalized estimation in the Gaussian framework.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-04 Sang-Yun Oh , Onkar Dalal , Kshitij Khare , Bala Rajaratnam

This work considers the computation of risk measures for quantities of interest governed by PDEs with Gaussian random field parameters using Taylor approximations. While efficient, Taylor approximations are local to the point of expansion,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Dingcheng Luo , Joshua Chen , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda

Gaussian processes are flexible probabilistic regression models which are widely used in statistics and machine learning. However, a drawback is their limited scalability to large data sets. To alleviate this, full-scale approximations…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Tim Gyger , Reinhard Furrer , Fabio Sigrist

Reliable methods for obtaining time-dependent solutions of Langevin equations are in high demand in the field of non-equilibrium theory. In this paper, we present a new method based on variational superposed Gaussian approximation (VSGA)…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-02 Xingyan Chu , Yoshihiko Hasegawa

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

The sub-Gaussian stable distribution is a heavy-tailed elliptically contoured law which has interesting applications in signal processing and financial mathematics. This work addresses the problem of feasible estimation of distributions. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Taras Bodnar , Dmitry Otryakhin , Erik Thorsen

Bayesian graphical models are a useful tool for understanding dependence relationships among many variables, particularly in situations with external prior information. In high-dimensional settings, the space of possible graphs becomes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-07 Zehang Richard Li , Tyler H. McCormick

We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

We present a Gaussian Variational Inference (GVI) technique that can be applied to large-scale nonlinear batch state estimation problems. The main contribution is to show how to fit both the mean and (inverse) covariance of a Gaussian to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-04-13 Timothy D. Barfoot , James R. Forbes , David Yoon

Continuous-time trajectory estimation is an attractive alternative to discrete-time batch estimation due to the ability to incorporate high-frequency measurements from asynchronous sensors while keeping the number of optimization parameters…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Jacob Johnson , Joshua Mangelson , Timothy Barfoot , Randal Beard

Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-24 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-17 Takashi Takahashi

We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-12-14 I. Garcia , J. Jimenez

Gaussian Boson Sampling (GBS) have shown advantages over classical methods for performing some specific sampling tasks. To fully harness the computational power of GBS, there has been great interest in identifying their practical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-28 Jørgen Ellegaard Andersen , Shan Shan