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The Bayesian approach has proved to be a coherent approach to handle ill posed Inverse problems. However, the Bayesian calculations need either an optimization or an integral calculation. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation requires…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari

A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-03 Diego Romeres , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Alessandro Chiuso

Reliable optimal control is challenging when the dynamics of a nonlinear system are unknown and only infrequent, noisy output measurements are available. This work addresses this setting of limited sensing by formulating a Bayesian prior…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-21 Robert Lefringhausen , Theodor Springer , Sandra Hirche

Covariance estimation and selection for multivariate datasets in a high-dimensional regime is a fundamental problem in modern statistics. Gaussian graphical models are a popular class of models used for this purpose. Current Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Xuan Cao , Shaojun Zhang

In this work, we present a novel approach to system identification for dynamical systems, based on a specific class of Deep Gaussian Processes (Deep GPs). These models are constructed by interconnecting linear dynamic GPs (equivalent to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Alessio Benavoli , Dario Piga , Marco Forgione , Marco Zaffalon

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

We introduce a Bayesian system identification (SysID) framework for jointly estimating robot's state trajectories and physical parameters with high accuracy. It embeds physically consistent inverse dynamics, contact and loop-closure…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Sergi Martinez , Steve Tonneau , Carlos Mastalli

When recovering an unknown signal from noisy measurements, the computational difficulty of performing optimal Bayesian MMSE (minimum mean squared error) inference often necessitates the use of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, a special…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-23 Madhu Advani , Surya Ganguli

Recovering dynamical equations from observed noisy data is the central challenge of system identification. We develop a statistical mechanics approach to analyze sparse equation discovery algorithms, which typically balance data fit and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-16 Andrei A. Klishin , Joseph Bakarji , J. Nathan Kutz , Krithika Manohar

We present a randomized maximum a posteriori (rMAP) method for generating approximate samples of posteriors in high dimensional Bayesian inverse problems governed by large-scale forward problems. We derive the rMAP approach by: 1) casting…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-12 Kainan Wang , Tan Bui-Thanh , Omar Ghattas

The quantitative formulation of evolution equations is the backbone for prediction, control, and understanding of dynamical systems across diverse scientific fields. Besides deriving differential equations for dynamical systems based on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-01-06 Tim W. Kroll , Oliver Kamps

A fully Bayesian treatment of complicated predictive models (such as deep neural networks) would enable rigorous uncertainty quantification and the automation of higher-level tasks including model selection. However, the intractability of…

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper

In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection method for identifying…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Shengling Shi , Giulio Bottegal , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

Computing the conditional mode of a distribution, better known as the $\mathit{maximum\ a\ posteriori}$ (MAP) assignment, is a fundamental task in probabilistic inference. However, MAP estimation is generally intractable, and remains hard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Matthew Shorvon , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , David S. Watson

Modeling real-world systems requires accounting for noise - whether it arises from unpredictable fluctuations in financial markets, irregular rhythms in biological systems, or environmental variability in ecosystems. While the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Matteo Bosso , Giovanni Franzese , Kushal Swamy , Maarten Theulings , Alejandro M. Aragón , Farbod Alijani

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

We study linear models under heavy-tailed priors from a probabilistic viewpoint. Instead of computing a single sparse most probable (MAP) solution as in standard deterministic approaches, the focus in the Bayesian compressed sensing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2014-03-05 George Papandreou , Alan Yuille

Identifying dynamical system (DS) is a vital task in science and engineering. Traditional methods require numerous calls to the DS solver, rendering likelihood-based or least-squares inference frameworks impractical. For efficient parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-19 Ying Zhou , Jinglai Li , Xiang Zhou , Hongqiao Wang

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis