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Nonstationary time series forecasting suffers from the distribution shift issue due to the different distributions that produce the training and test data. Existing methods attempt to alleviate the dependence by, e.g., removing low-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Xihao Piao , Zheng Chen , Lingwei Zhu , Yushun Dong , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Finding a transformation between two unknown probability distributions from finite samples is crucial for modeling complex data distributions and performing tasks such as sample generation, domain adaptation and statistical inference. One…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Zhe Xiong , Qiaoqiao Ding , Xiaoqun Zhang

Computer vision research has long aimed to build systems that are robust to spatial transformations found in natural data. Traditionally, this is done using data augmentation or hard-coding invariances into the architecture. However, too…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-19 Utkarsh Singhal , Carlos Esteves , Ameesh Makadia , Stella X. Yu

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial to equip TSF models with out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as historical training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Haoxin Liu , Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Lingkai Kong , Zhiyuan Zhao , Chao Zhang , B. Aditya Prakash

This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , David Rolnick

Flow-based generative models are composed of invertible transformations between two random variables of the same dimension. Therefore, flow-based models cannot be adequately trained if the dimension of the data distribution does not match…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Hyeongju Kim , Hyeonseung Lee , Woo Hyun Kang , Joun Yeop Lee , Nam Soo Kim

Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Weiwei Ye , Songgaojun Deng , Qiaosha Zou , Ning Gui

Instance normalization (IN) is widely used in non-stationary multivariate time series forecasting to reduce distribution shifts and highlight common patterns across samples. However, IN can over-smooth instance-specific structural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Hao Li , Lu Zhang , Liu Chong , Yankai Chen , Pengyang Wang , Yingjie Zhou

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

Normalizing flow (NF) has gained popularity over traditional maximum likelihood based methods due to its strong capability to model complex data distributions. However, the standard approach, which maps the observed data to a normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Hanze Dong , Shizhe Diao , Weizhong Zhang , Tong Zhang

Time series forecasting is vital in diverse sectors such as energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with external events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yunfeng Ge , Ming Jin , Yiji Zhao , Hongyan Li , Bo Du , Chang Xu , Shirui Pan

Time-series forecasting finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time series data, it is important for time-series forecasting models to handle potential distribution shifts over time. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Haoxin Liu , B. Aditya Prakash

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task with broad applications, yet conventional methods often treat data as discrete sequences, overlooking their origin as noisy samples of continuous processes. Crucially, discrete noisy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Huibo Xu , Likang Wu , Xianquan Wang , Haoning Dang , Chun-Wun Cheng , Angelica I Aviles-Rivero , Qi Liu

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi , Randolf Scholz , Stefan Born , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Sampling from unnormalized densities is analogous to the generative modeling problem, but the target distribution is defined by a known energy function instead of data samples. Because evaluating the energy function is often costly, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Aaron Havens , Brian Karrer , Neta Shaul

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinjin Chi , Lei Feng , Lulu Zhang , Yongcheng Jing , Yiming Wang , Ximing Li , Jialie Shen , Leszek Rutkowski , Dacheng Tao

The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development in an area.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Zann Koh , Yan Qin , Yong Liang Guan , Chau Yuen

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Lars Graf , Thomas Ortner , Stanisław Woźniak , Angeliki Pantazi

Flow-based deep generative models learn data distributions by transforming a simple base distribution into a complex distribution via a set of invertible transformations. Due to the invertibility, such models can score unseen data samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-18 Maximilian Schmidt , Marko Simic

Sampling-based motion planning is the predominant paradigm in many real-world robotic applications, but its performance is immensely dependent on the quality of the samples. The majority of traditional planners are inefficient as they use…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Tin Lai , Fabio Ramos