English
Related papers

Related papers: Incoherent Probability Judgments in Large Language…

200 papers

We investigate the patterns of incorrect answers produced by large language models (LLMs) during evaluation. These errors exhibit highly non-intuitive behaviors unique to each model. By analyzing these patterns, we measure the similarities…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-06 William F. Bradley

Although language model scores are often treated as probabilities, their reliability as probability estimators has mainly been studied through calibration, overlooking other aspects. In particular, it is unclear whether language models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Eitan Wagner , Yuli Slavutsky , Omri Abend

Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much popularity due to their surprising ability at generating human-like English sentences. LLMs are essentially predictors, estimating the probability of a sequence of words given the past.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Marco Bondaschi , Michael Gastpar

With the increasing interest in using large language models (LLMs) for planning in natural language, understanding their behaviors becomes an important research question. This work conducts a systematic investigation of LLMs' ability to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Yixuan Wang , Freda Shi

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

Rational decision-making under uncertainty requires coherent degrees of belief in events. However, event probabilities generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit incoherence, violating the axioms of probability…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Jian-Qiao Zhu , Haijiang Yan , Thomas L. Griffiths

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Vassilis Papadopoulos , Jérémie Wenger , Clément Hongler

When asked, large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT claim that they can assist with relevance judgments but it is not clear whether automated judgments can reliably be used in evaluations of retrieval systems. In this perspectives paper,…

We devise an algorithm to generate propositions that objectively instantiate graphs supporting coherence-driven inference. We also benchmark the ability of large language models (LLMs) to reconstruct coherence graphs from (a simple…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Steve Huntsman , Jewell Thomas

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant advances in natural language processing, but their underlying mechanisms are often misunderstood. Despite exhibiting coherent answers and apparent reasoning behaviors, LLMs rely on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Bo Zhou , Daniel Geißler , Paul Lukowicz

Can autoregressive large language models (LLMs) learn consistent probability distributions when trained on sequences in different token orders? We prove formally that for any well-defined probability distribution, sequence perplexity is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Xiaoliang Luo , Xinyi Xu , Michael Ramscar , Bradley C. Love

Modern AI systems are being deployed in complex domains such as medicine, science, and law, where it is important that they not only produce correct answers, but also represent and update uncertain beliefs about the world as new evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Chacha Chen , Matthew Jörke , Adam Goliński , Masha Fedzechkina , Guillermo Sapiro , Sinead Williamson , Nicholas Foti

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrably capable of cross-lingual transfer, but can produce inconsistent output when prompted with the same queries written in different languages. To understand how language models are able to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Zheng Wei Lim , Alham Fikri Aji , Trevor Cohn

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied as automatic evaluators for natural language generation assessment often using pairwise comparative judgements. Existing approaches typically rely on single judges or aggregate multiple…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Mengjie Qian , Guangzhi Sun , Mark J. F. Gales , Kate M. Knill

Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann , Leo Schwinn

The current fascination with large language models, or LLMs, derives from the fact that many users lack the expertise to evaluate the quality of the generated text. LLMs may therefore appear more capable than they actually are. The…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Eliza Mik

Acquiescence bias, i.e. the tendency of humans to agree with statements in surveys, independent of their actual beliefs, is well researched and documented. Since Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to be very influenceable by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Daniel Braun

It is increasingly important to evaluate how text generation systems based on large language models (LLMs) behave, such as their tendency to produce harmful output or their sensitivity to adversarial inputs. Such evaluations often rely on a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Rachel Longjohn , Shang Wu , Saatvik Kher , Catarina Belém , Padhraic Smyth

While large pretrained language models (PLMs) demonstrate incredible fluency and performance on many natural language tasks, recent work has shown that well-performing PLMs are very sensitive to what prompts are feed into them. Even when…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Harsh Raj , Domenic Rosati , Subhabrata Majumdar

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth