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We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We study the problem of estimating the effect function for a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to a population-averaged outcome. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Seok-Jin Kim , Kaizheng Wang

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

When devising a course of treatment for a patient, doctors often have little quantitative evidence on which to base their decisions, beyond their medical education and published clinical trials. Stanford Health Care alone has millions of…

Psychometric assessment instruments aid clinicians by providing methods of assessing the future risk of adverse events such as aggression. Existing machine learning approaches have treated this as a classification problem, predicting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Aidan Quinn , Melanie Simmons , Benjamin Spivak , Christoph Bergmeir

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

We introduce Targeted Smooth Bayesian Causal Forests (tsBCF), a nonparametric Bayesian approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects which vary smoothly over a single covariate in the observational data setting. The tsBCF method…

Unmeasured confounding bias threatens the validity of observational studies. While sensitivity analyses and study designs have been proposed to address this issue, they often overlook the growing availability of auxiliary data. Using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Jie Kate Hu , Dafne Zorzetto , Francesca Dominici

Delineating the associations between images and a vector of covariates is of central interest in medical imaging studies. To tackle this problem of image response regression, we propose a novel nonparametric approach in the framework of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-04 Daiwei Zhang , Lexin Li , Chandra Sripada , Jian Kang

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

When data on treatment assignment, outcomes, and covariates from a randomized trial are available, a question of interest is to what extent covariates can be used to optimize treatment decisions. Statistical hypothesis testing of…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-04 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Mohammad Ali Mansournia , Paul Gustafson

Principal stratification analysis evaluates how causal effects of a treatment on a primary outcome vary across strata of units defined by their treatment effect on some intermediate quantity. This endeavor is substantially challenged when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-21 Chanmin Kim , Corwin Zigler

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a flexible modeling technique that has been used in a broad range of small-area estimation problems. Traditionally, MRP studies have been focused on non-causal settings, where estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson

Treatment effect heterogeneity occurs when individual characteristics influence the effect of a treatment. We propose a novel approach that combines prognostic score matching and conditional inference trees to characterize effect…

We propose a novel framework for solving nonlinear PDEs using sparse radial basis function (RBF) networks. Sparsity-promoting regularization is employed to prevent over-parameterization and reduce redundant features. This work is motivated…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Zihan Shao , Konstantin Pieper , Xiaochuan Tian

Detecting heterogeneity in treatment response enriches the interpretation of gerontologic trials. In aging research, estimating the effect of the intervention on clinically meaningful outcomes faces analytical challenges when it is…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-08 Changjun Li , Heather Allore , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li , Guangyu Tong