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Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

In recent years, AI-based weather forecasting models have matched or even outperformed numerical weather prediction systems. However, most of these models have been trained and evaluated on reanalysis datasets like ERA5. These datasets,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-17 Weixin Jin , Jonathan Weyn , Pengcheng Zhao , Siqi Xiang , Jiang Bian , Zuliang Fang , Haiyu Dong , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that…

To promote the practical application of AI Global Weather Forecasting Models (AIGWFM), we have developed an adaptable application platform named 'YanTian'. This platform enhances existing open-source AIGWFM with a suite of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-15 Wencong Cheng , Jiangjiang Xia , Chang Qu , Zhigang Wang , Xinyi Zeng , Fang Huang , Tianye Li

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-30 Yingkai Sha , John S. Schreck , William Chapman , David John Gagne

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have achieved performance comparable to, or even surpassing, traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by leveraging reanalysis data. However, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-25 Pengcheng Zhao , Jiang Bian , Zekun Ni , Weixin Jin , Jonathan Weyn , Zuliang Fang , Siqi Xiang , Haiyu Dong , Bin Zhang , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang

Scientific and technological advances in numerical modelling have improved the quality of climate predictions over recent decades, but predictive skill remains limited in many aspects. Extreme events such as heat and cold waves, droughts,…

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Kun Chen , Lei Bai , Fenghua Ling , Peng Ye , Tao Chen , Hang Fan , Hao Chen , Yi Xiao , Kang Chen , Tao Han , Jing-Jia Luo , Wanli Ouyang

The rapid adoption of AI in Earth system science promises unprecedented speed and fidelity in the generation of climate information. However, this technological prowess rests on a fragile and unequal foundation: the current trajectory of AI…

This study introduces ReSA-ConvLSTM, an artificial intelligence (AI) framework for systematic bias correction in numerical weather prediction (NWP). We propose three innovations by integrating dynamic climatological normalization, ConvLSTM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Xiao Zhou , Yuze Sun , Jie Wu , Xiaomeng Huang

As in many other areas of engineering and applied science, Machine Learning (ML) is having a profound impact in the domain of Weather and Climate Prediction. A very recent development in this area has been the emergence of fully data-driven…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Massimo Bonavita

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Xue Wang , Tian Zhou , Jinyang Gao , Bolin Ding , Jingren Zhou

Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal…

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Yanfei Xiang , Weixin Jin , Haiyu Dong , Mingliang Bai , Zuliang Fang , Pengcheng Zhao , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Xiaomeng Huang

Deep Learning based Weather Prediction (DLWP) models have been improving rapidly over the last few years, surpassing state of the art numerical weather forecasts by significant margins. While much of the optimization effort is focused on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-15 Haoyu Qin , Yungang Chen , Qianchuan Jiang , Pengchao Sun , Xiancai Ye , Chao Lin

As global warming increases the complexity of weather patterns; the precision of weather forecasting becomes increasingly important. Our study proposes a novel preprocessing method and convolutional autoencoder model developed to improve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Yo-Hwan Choi , Seon-Yu Kang , Minjong Cheon

Accurate weather and climate modeling is critical for both scientific advancement and safeguarding communities against environmental risks. Traditional approaches rely heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which simulate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Fahad Shahbaz Khan , Salman Khan

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Tao Han , Song Guo , Fenghua Ling , Kang Chen , Junchao Gong , Jingjia Luo , Junxia Gu , Kan Dai , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Currently, the technique of numerical model-based atmospheric environment forecasting has becoming mature, yet traditional numerical prediction methods struggle to balance computational costs and forecast accuracy, facing developmental…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-29 Shengxuan Ji , Yawei Qu , Cheng Yuan , Tijian Wang , Bing Liu , Lili Zhu , Huihui Zheng , Zhenfeng Qiu , Pulong Chen