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The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Christian Toth , Christian Knoll , Franz Pernkopf , Robert Peharz

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Moritz Stammel , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Raghav Mehta , Mélanie Roschewitz , Ben Glocker

While recent debiasing methods for Scene Graph Generation (SGG) have shown impressive performance, these efforts often attribute model bias solely to the long-tail distribution of relationships, overlooking the more profound causes stemming…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Li Liu , Shuzhou Sun , Shuaifeng Zhi , Fan Shi , Zhen Liu , Janne Heikkilä , Yongxiang Liu

Generative models are increasingly deployed as substitutes for real data in downstream scientific workflows, yet standard evaluation criteria remain focused on marginal distribution matching. We argue that this represents a fundamental gap:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Nazia Riasat

Counterfactual explanations (CE) are the de facto method for providing insights into black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative inputs that lead to different outcomes. However, existing CE approaches, including group and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Lei You , Lele Cao , Mattias Nilsson , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei

Explanatory studies, such as randomized controlled trials, are targeted to extract the true causal effect of interventions on outcomes and are by design adjusted for covariates through randomization. On the contrary, observational studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Riddhiman Adib , Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed , Mohammad Adibuzzaman

With the increasing impact of algorithmic decision-making on human lives, the interpretability of models has become a critical issue in machine learning. Counterfactual explanation is an important method in the field of interpretable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Ao Xu , Tieru Wu

Research on causal effects often relies on synthetic data due to the scarcity of real-world datasets with ground-truth effects. Since current data-generating tools do not always meet all requirements for state-of-the-art research, ad-hoc…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Andreas W M Sauter , Erman Acar , Aske Plaat

Causal Inference offers a fundamental approach for advancing empirical software engineering (ESE) beyond traditional statistical association, enabling researchers to rigorously identify and quantify causal relationships in software…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Daniel Rodriguez-Cardenas , Aya Garryyeva , David Nader Palacio , Antonio Mastropaolo , Denys Poshyvanyk

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-12 Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

Discrete diffusion is a promising framework for modeling and generating discrete data. In this work, we present Target Concrete Score Matching (TCSM), a novel and versatile objective for training and fine-tuning discrete diffusion models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-24 Ruixiang Zhang , Shuangfei Zhai , Yizhe Zhang , James Thornton , Zijing Ou , Joshua Susskind , Navdeep Jaitly

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer interpretable insights into machine learning predictions by answering ``what if?" questions. However, in real-world settings where models are frequently updated, existing counterfactual explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Jamie Duell , Xiuyi Fan

The cross-pollination between causal discovery and deep learning has led to increasingly extensive interactions. It results in a large number of deep learning data types (such as images, text, etc.) extending into the field of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Hang Chen , Xinyu Yang , Keqing Du , Wenya Wang

Multi-Hop Fact Verification (MHFV) necessitates complex reasoning across disparate evidence, posing significant challenges for Large Language Models (LLMs) which often suffer from hallucinations and fractured logical chains. Existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yunhan Bu , Quan Zhang , Huaping Zhang , Guotong Geng , Chunxiao Gao , Askar Hamdulla , Juan Wang , Qiuchi Li , Baohua Zhang , Shuai Lei , Yunbo Cao , Zhunchen Luo

We introduce MCCE: Monte Carlo sampling of valid and realistic Counterfactual Explanations for tabular data, a novel counterfactual explanation method that generates on-manifold, actionable and valid counterfactuals by modeling the joint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-26 Annabelle Redelmeier , Martin Jullum , Kjersti Aas , Anders Løland

In strategic classification, an institution (e.g., a bank) anticipates adaptation from users who change their features to increase utility in a classification task (e.g., loan repayment). Since a key challenge is the distribution shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Antonio Gois , Sophia Gunluk , Nir Rosenfeld , Nidhi Hegde , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Dhanya Sridhar