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Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better explanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level…

Classical portfolio models degrade under structural breaks, whereas flexible machine-learning allocation methods often lack arbitrage consistency and interpretability. We propose Causal PDE-Control Models (CPCMs), a framework that…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-10 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez

Out-of-distribution generalization is key to building models that remain reliable across diverse environments. Recent causality-based methods address this challenge by learning invariant causal relationships in the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Théotime Le Goff , Émilie Devijver

Probabilities of causation (PoCs) are fundamental quantities for counterfactual analysis and personalized decision making. However, existing analytical results are largely confined to binary settings. This paper extends PoCs to multi-valued…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Xin Shu , Shuai Wang , Ang Li

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Francesco Montagna , Francesco Locatello

Recently, Diffusion Large Language Models (DLLMs) have offered high throughput and effective sequential reasoning, making them a competitive alternative to autoregressive LLMs (ALLMs). However, parallel decoding, which enables simultaneous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Qiguang Chen , Hanjing Li , Libo Qin , Dengyun Peng , Jinhao Liu , Jiangyi Wang , Chengyue Wu , Xie Chen , Yantao Du , Wanxiang Che

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise…

To perform counterfactual reasoning in Structural Causal Models (SCMs), one needs to know the causal mechanisms, which provide factorizations of conditional distributions into noise sources and deterministic functions mapping realizations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Guy Lorberbom , Daniel D. Johnson , Chris J. Maddison , Daniel Tarlow , Tamir Hazan

Structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful tool for understanding the complex causal relationships that underlie many real-world systems. As these systems grow in size, the number of variables and complexity of interactions between them…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Moritz Willig , Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Liye Jia , Fengyufan Yang , Ka Lok Man , Erick Purwanto , Sheng-Uei Guan , Jeremy Smith , Yutao Yue

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Rebecca J. Herman , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Weronika Ormaniec , Scott Sussex , Lars Lorch , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Three distinct phenomena complicate statistical causal analysis: latent common causes, causal cycles, and latent selection. Foundational works on Structural Causal Models (SCMs), e.g., Bongers et al. (2021, Ann. Stat., 49(5): 2885-2915),…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-23 Leihao Chen , Onno Zoeter , Joris M. Mooij

Stochastic compositional optimization (SCO) has attracted considerable attention because of its broad applicability to important real-world problems. However, existing works on SCO assume that the projection within a solution update is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Shuoguang Yang , Wei You , Zhe Zhang , Ethan X. Fang

The paper addresses the problem of finding the causal direction between two associated variables. The proposed solution is to build an autoencoder of their joint distribution and to maximize its estimation capacity relative to both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Matthias Feiler

Reversible computation is key in developing new, energy-efficient paradigms, but also in providing forward-only concepts with broader definitions and finer frames of study.Among other fields, the algebraic specification and representation…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Clément Aubert

We propose a novel formalism for describing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as fixed-point problems on causally ordered variables, eliminating the need for Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), and establish the weakest known conditions for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Meyer Scetbon , Joel Jennings , Agrin Hilmkil , Cheng Zhang , Chao Ma

Without loss of generality, existing machine learning techniques may learn spurious correlation dependent on the domain, which exacerbates the generalization of models in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this issue, recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Bin Qin , Jiangmeng Li , Yi Li , Xuesong Wu , Yupeng Wang , Wenwen Qiang , Jianwen Cao