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When comparing time-varying treatments in a non-randomised setting, one must often correct for time-dependent confounders that influence treatment choice over time and that are themselves influenced by treatment. We present a new two step…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-06 J. M. Gran , R. Hoff , K. Røysland , B. Ledergerber , J. Young , O. O. Aalen

This work bridges the gap between staggered adoption designs and survival analysis to estimate causal effects in settings with time-varying treatments, addressing a fundamental challenge in medical research exemplified by the Stanford Heart…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Xiang Meng , Iavor Bojinov

Functional data are increasingly prevalent in biomedical research. While functional data analysis has been established for decades, causal inference with functional treatments remains largely unexplored. Existing methods typically focus on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Ziren Jiang , Erjia Cui , Jared D. Huling

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-19 Xuan Wang , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian , Layla Parast

In many real-world causal inference applications, the primary outcomes (labels) are often partially missing, especially if they are expensive or difficult to collect. If the missingness depends on covariates (i.e., missingness is not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Zhenghao Zeng , David Arbour , Avi Feller , Raghavendra Addanki , Ryan Rossi , Ritwik Sinha , Edward H. Kennedy

In the standard difference-in-differences research design, the parallel trends assumption may be violated when the relationship between the exposure trend and the outcome trend is confounded by unmeasured confounders. Progress can be made…

Effectiveness of immune-oncology chemotherapies has been presented in recent clinical trials. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival functions of the immune therapy and the control often suggested the presence of the lag-time until the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-26 Hisato Sunami , Satoshi Hattori

We propose an instrumental variable framework for identifying and estimating causal effects of discrete and continuous treatments with binary instruments. The basis of our approach is a local copula representation of the joint distribution…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Sukjin Han , Kaspar Wüthrich

Time plays a fundamental role in causal analyses, where the goal is to quantify the effect of a specific treatment on future outcomes. In a randomized experiment, times of treatment, and when outcomes are observed, are typically well…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-19 Guillaume W. Basse , Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo M. Airoldi

A mixture of a distribution of responses from untreated patients and a shift of that distribution is a useful model for the responses from a group of treated patients. The mixture model accounts for the fact that not all the patients in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-15 Bradley Lubich , Daniel Jeske , Weixin Yao

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-30 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Kara E. Rudolph

Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In survival analysis, estimating the failure time distribution is an important and difficult task, since usually the data is subject to censoring. Specifically, in this paper we consider current status data, a type of data where all of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-18 Yael Travis-Lumer , Yair Goldberg

Patient care may be improved by recommending treatments based on patient characteristics when there is treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a great deal of attention focused on the estimation of optimal treatment rules…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Michael G. Hudgens , Jessie K. Edwards , Stephen R. Cole

The delivery and assessment of quality health care is complex with many interacting and interdependent components. In terms of research design and statistical analysis, this complexity and interdependency makes it difficult to assess the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-03 Maricela Cruz , Daniel L. Gillen , Miriam Bender , Hernando Ombao

A core component of precision medicine research involves optimizing individualized treatment rules (ITRs) based on patient characteristics. Many studies used to estimate ITRs are longitudinal in nature, collecting outcomes over time. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-29 Lanqiu Yao , Thaddeus Tarpey

The analysis of platform trials can be enhanced by utilizing non-concurrent controls. Since including this data might also introduce bias in the treatment effect estimators if time trends are present, methods for incorporating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Pavla Krotka , Martin Posch , Marta Bofill Roig

Medication adherence is essential to ensure treatment effectiveness, but too often in routine care non-adherence compromises the desired outcome. We explore longitudinal causal modelling using observational data to estimate the time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Xiaoran Liang , Deniz Türkmen , Jane A H Masoli , Luke C Pilling , Jack Bowden

In a real-life setting, little is known regarding the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention among older adults, and analysis of observational data can add crucial information on the benefits of actual patterns of use. Latent class…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-18 Awa Diop , Caroline Sirois , Jason Robert Guertin , Denis Talbot

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Akanksha Negi , Didier Nibbering