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We propose a reinforcement learning method for estimating an optimal dynamic treatment regime for survival outcomes with dependent censoring. The estimator allows the failure time to be conditionally independent of censoring and dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Hunyong Cho , Shannon T. Holloway , David J. Couper , Michael R. Kosorok

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

Inverse probability (IP) weighting of marginal structural models (MSMs) can provide consistent estimators of time-varying treatment effects under correct model specifications and identifiability assumptions, even in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Nodoka Seya , Masataka Taguri , Takeo Ishii

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Swaraj Bose , Walter Dempsey

Sustained treatment strategies are common in many domains, particularly in medicine, where many treatment are delivered repeatedly over time. The effects of adherence to a treatment strategy throughout follow-up are often more relevant to…

Functional principal component analysis has been shown to be invaluable for revealing variation modes of longitudinal outcomes, which serves as important building blocks for forecasting and model building. Decades of research have advanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-07 Peijun Sang , Dehan Kong , Shu Yang

Pre-treatment selection or censoring (`selection on treatment') can occur when two treatment levels are compared ignoring the third option of neither treatment, in `censoring by death' settings where treatment is only defined for those who…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-20 Edward H. Kennedy , Steve Harris , Luke J. Keele

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Lan Wen , Aaron L Sarvet

Breast cancer patients may experience relapse or death after surgery during the follow-up period, leading to dependent censoring of relapse. This phenomenon, known as semi-competing risk, imposes challenges in analyzing treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Tonghui Yu , Mengjiao Peng , Yifan Cui , Elynn Chen , Chixiang Chen

Electronic health records and other sources of observational data are increasingly used for drawing causal inferences. The estimation of a causal effect using these data not meant for research purposes is subject to confounding and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Janie Coulombe , Shu Yang

Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are often used to estimate causal effects of treatments on survival time outcomes from observational data when time-dependent confounding may be present. They can be fitted using, e.g., inverse probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Shaun R Seaman , Ruth H Keogh

Using a method of entropic analysis of time series we establish the correlation between heartbeat long-range memory and mortality risk in patients with congestive heart failure.

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 P. Allegrini , R. Balocchi , S. Chillemi , P. Grigolini , P. Hamilton , R. Maestri , L. Palatella , G. Raffaelli

Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with a survival outcome are often challenged by immortal time (IMT), a period of follow-up during which the survival outcome cannot occur because of the observed later treatment initiation. It has…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-08 Jiping Wang , Peter Peduzzi , Michael Wininger , Shuangge Ma

Often in Phase 3 clinical trials measuring a long-term time-to-event endpoint, such as overall survival or progression-free survival, investigators also collect repeated measures on biomarkers which may be predictive of the primary…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-30 Abigail J. Burdon , Lisa V. Hampson , Christopher Jennison

Current health policy calls for greater use of evidence based care delivery services to improve patient quality and safety outcomes. Care delivery is complex, with interacting and interdependent components that challenge traditional…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-27 Maricela Cruz , Miriam Bender , Hernando Ombao

Interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of a health policy intervention that accounts for the temporal dependence of outcomes. When the outcome of interest is a percentage or percentile, the data can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Shangyuan Ye , Maricela Cruz , Ziyou Wang , Yun Yu

This paper analyzes difference-in-differences designs with a continuous treatment. We show that treatment-on-the-treated-type parameters are identified under a parallel trends assumption analogous to the binary treatment case. However,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Brantly Callaway , Andrew Goodman-Bacon , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

Panel data consists of a collection of $N$ units that are observed over $T$ units of time. A policy or treatment is subject to staggered adoption if different units take on treatment at different times and remains treated (or never at all).…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-14 Eric Xia , Yuling Yan , Martin J. Wainwright
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