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Our focus is on the design and analysis of efficient Monte Carlo methods for computing tail probabilities for the suprema of Gaussian random fields, along with conditional expectations of functionals of the fields given the existence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-09 Robert J. Adler , Jose H. Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Xiuming Liu , Dave Zachariah , Edith C. H. Ngai

A concentration result for quadratic form of independent subgaussian random variables is derived. If the moments of the random variables satisfy a "Bernstein condition", then the variance term of the Hanson-Wright inequality can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-28 Pierre C Bellec

We study persistence probabilities of Hermite processes. As a tool, we derive a general decorrelation inequality for the Rosenblatt process, which is reminiscent of Slepian's lemma for Gaussian processes or the FKG inequality and which may…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Frank Aurzada , Christian Mönch

We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-25 Roy Wagner

Gaussian processes are one of the dominant approaches in Bayesian learning. Although the approach has been applied to numerous problems with great success, it has a few fundamental limitations. Multiple methods in literature have addressed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Kalvik Jakkala

We introduce GAUCHE, a library for GAUssian processes in CHEmistry. Gaussian processes have long been a cornerstone of probabilistic machine learning, affording particular advantages for uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimisation.…

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

Let $\pa{X_{t}}_{t\in T}$ be a family of real-valued centered random variables indexed by a countable set $T$. In the first part of this paper, we establish exponential bounds for the deviation probabilities of the supremum $Z=\sup_{t\in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Yannick Baraud

The Bayesian Conjugate Gradient method (BayesCG) is a probabilistic generalization of the Conjugate Gradient method (CG) for solving linear systems with real symmetric positive definite coefficient matrices. Our CG-based implementation of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-04 Tim W. Reid , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Jon Cockayne , Chris J. Oates

We derive the exponential as well as power decreasing tail estimations for normed sums of centered independent identical distributed (or not) random variables on the Khintchine's form. We consider arbitrary, in particular, non-Rademacher's…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-06 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Rough paths techniques give the ability to define solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by signals $X$ which are not semimartingales and whose $p$-variation is finite only for large values of $p$. In this context, rough…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-15 Yanghui Liu , Zachary Selk , Samy Tindel

With the significant advancement in quantum computation in the past couple of decades, the exploration of machine-learning subroutines using quantum strategies has become increasingly popular. Gaussian process regression is a widely used…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-03-07 Siddhartha Das , George Siopsis , Christian Weedbrook

We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-05 Arash A. Amini , XuanLong Nguyen

The paper characterizes uniform convergence rate for general classes of wavelet expansions of stationary Gaussian random processes. The convergence in probability is considered.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-08 Andriy Olenko , Yuriy Kozachenko , Olga Polosmak

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

We generalize L\'evy's lemma, a concentration-of-measure result for the uniform probability distribution on high-dimensional spheres, to a much more general class of measures, so-called GAP measures. For any given density matrix $\rho$ on a…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Stefan Teufel , Roderich Tumulka , Cornelia Vogel

A method to perform unfolding with Gaussian processes (GPs) is presented. Using Bayesian regression, we define an estimator for the underlying truth distribution as the mode of the posterior. We show that in the case where the bin contents…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-11-07 Adam Bozson , Glen Cowan , Francesco Spanò

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-09 A. Fradi , Y. Feunteun , C. Samir , M. Baklouti , F. Bachoc , J-M. Loubes
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