Related papers: Hidden Markov Models and the Bayes Filter in Categ…
From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization…
Filtering and smoothing with a generalised representation of uncertainty is considered. Here, uncertainty is represented using a class of outer measures. It is shown how this representation of uncertainty can be propagated using…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
We give simple conditions that ensure exponential forgetting of the initial conditions of the filter for general state-space hidden Markov chain. The proofs are based on the coupling argument applied to the posterior Markov kernels. These…
By making use of martingale representations, we derive the asymptotic normality of particle filters in hidden Markov models and a relatively simple formula for their asymptotic variances. Although repeated resamplings result in complicated…
We introduce partial Markov categories. In the same way that Markov categories encode stochastic processes, partial Markov categories encode stochastic processes with constraints, observations and updates. In particular, we prove a…
Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…
We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, i.e. circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or…
Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
We elucidate the mathematical structure of Bayesian filtering, and Bayesian inference more broadly, by applying recent work on category theoretical probability, specifically the concept of a strongly representable Markov category. We show…
In this document I aim to give an informal treatment of automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding, a general algorithm for conditional sampling from a Markov process on a directed acyclic graph. I'll show that the underlying ideas can be…
In this paper, we revisit the Kalman filter theory. After giving the intuition on a simplified financial markets example, we revisit the maths underlying it. We then show that Kalman filter can be presented in a very different fashion using…
We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
Complex systems made of interacting elements are commonly abstracted as networks, in which nodes are associated with dynamic state variables, whose evolution is driven by interactions mediated by the edges. Markov processes have been the…
Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…
Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…
Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely…
Global variational approximation methods in graphical models allow efficient approximate inference of complex posterior distributions by using a simpler model. The choice of the approximating model determines a tradeoff between the…