Related papers: Self and mutually exciting point process embedding…
The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
A wide class of non-Markovian completely positive master equations can be formulated on the basis of quantum collisional models. In this phenomenological approach the dynamics of an open quantum system is modeled through an ensemble of…
We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…
The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…
Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…
Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…
Embedding non-Markovian open quantum dynamics into an enlarged Markovian space offers a powerful route to nonperturbative simulations, where the dynamics of the extended space can be governed by multiple distinct Markovian equations. We…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
We consider dynamic versions of the mutual information of lifetime distributions, with focus on past lifetimes, residual lifetimes and mixed lifetimes evaluated at different instants. This allows to study multicomponent systems, by…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…
We examine the effect of item arrangement on choices using a novel decision-making model based on the Markovian exploration of choice sets. This model is inspired by experimental evidence suggesting that the decision-making process involves…
We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…
Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive…