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We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Ainkaran Santhirasekaram , Ben Glocker

We introduce the Sinkhorn treatment effect, an entropic optimal transport measure of divergence between counterfactual distributions. Unlike classical quantities such as the average treatment effect, this measure captures differences across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Medha Agarwal , Alex Luedtke

Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Zixuan Geng , Maximilian Schleich , Dan Suciu

In this paper, we link two existing approaches to derive counterfactuals: adaptations based on a causal graph, and optimal transport. We extend "Knothe's rearrangement" and "triangular transport" to probabilistic graphical models, and use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Ewen Gallic

We leverage diffusion models to study the robustness-performance tradeoff of robust classifiers. Our approach introduces a simple, pretrained diffusion method to generate low-norm counterfactual examples (CEs): semantically altered data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Eric Yeats , Cameron Darwin , Eduardo Ortega , Frank Liu , Hai Li

To understand the black-box characteristics of deep networks, counterfactual explanation that deduces not only the important features of an input space but also how those features should be modified to classify input as a target class has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-15 Hong-Gyu Jung , Sin-Han Kang , Hee-Dong Kim , Dong-Ok Won , Seong-Whan Lee

We present a new method for counterfactual explanations (CFEs) based on Bayesian optimisation that applies to both classification and regression models. Our method is a globally convergent search algorithm with support for arbitrary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Thomas Spooner , Danial Dervovic , Jason Long , Jon Shepard , Jiahao Chen , Daniele Magazzeni

With the development of deep learning, standard classification problems have achieved good results. However, conventional classification problems are often too idealistic. Most data in the natural world usually have imbalanced distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-15 Yen-Chi Hsu , Cheng-Yao Hong , Wan-Cyuan Fan , Ming-Sui Lee , Davi Geiger , Tyng-Luh Liu

Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) have attracted significant interest from the machine-learning community due to their ability to elegantly and tractably model the delicate balance between quality and diversity of sets. DPPs are commonly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-27 Zelda Mariet , Mike Gartrell , Suvrit Sra

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have emerged as a major paradigm in explainable AI research, providing recourse recommendations for users affected by the decisions of machine learning models. However, CEs found by existing methods often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs remains a fundamental challenge. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, its practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Zhenhan Fang , Aixin Tan , Jian Huang

Whilst an abundance of techniques have recently been proposed to generate counterfactual explanations for the predictions of opaque black-box systems, markedly less attention has been paid to exploring the uncertainty of these generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Eoin Delaney , Derek Greene , Mark T. Keane

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

Predictive process analytics often apply machine learning to predict the future states of a running business~process. However, the internal mechanisms of many existing predictive algorithms are opaque and a human decision-maker is unable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Chihcheng Hsieh , Catarina Moreira , Chun Ouyang

The application of deep learning in medical imaging has significantly advanced diagnostic capabilities, enhancing both accuracy and efficiency. Despite these benefits, the lack of transparency in these AI models, often termed "black boxes,"…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Eleonora Beatrice Rossi , Eleonora Lopez , Danilo Comminiello

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Counterfactual explanations (CFE) for deep image classifiers aim to reveal how minimal input changes lead to different model decisions, providing critical insights for model interpretation and improvement. However, existing CFE methods…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Townim Faisal Chowdhury , Vu Minh Hieu Phan , Kewen Liao , Nanyu Dong , Minh-Son To , Anton Hengel , Johan Verjans , Zhibin Liao

The theory of optimal transportation has developed into a powerful and elegant framework for comparing probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in all areas of science. The fundamental idea of analyzing probabilities by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Florian F Gunsilius

Learning rewards from human behaviour or feedback is a promising approach to aligning AI systems with human values but fails to consistently extract correct reward functions. Interpretability tools could enable users to understand and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Jan Wehner , Frans Oliehoek , Luciano Cavalcante Siebert
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