Related papers: Predictability and Randomness

We consider prediction theory for stationary stochastic processes in continuous time. We discuss prediction using the whole (infinite) past, and using only a finite section of the past. The solutions to both these classical problems have…

In combinatorics, the probabilistic method is a very powerful tool to prove the existence of combinatorial objects with interesting and useful properties. Explicit constructions of objects with such properties are often very difficult, or…

Continuous first-order logic is used to apply model-theoretic analysis to analytic structures (e.g. Hilbert spaces, Banach spaces, probability spaces, etc.). Classical computable model theory is used to examine the algorithmic structure of…

Programs that combine I/O and countable probabilistic choice, modulo either bisimilarity or trace equivalence, can be seen as describing a probabilistic strategy. For well-founded programs, we might expect to axiomatize bisimilarity via a…

Different aspects of the predictability problem in dynamical systems are reviewed. The deep relation among Lyapunov exponents, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, Shannon entropy and algorithmic complexity is discussed. In particular, we emphasize…

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the…

Unlike Martin-L\"of randomness and Schnorr randomness, computable randomness has not been defined, except for a few ad hoc cases, outside of Cantor space. This paper offers such a definition (actually, several equivalent definitions), and…

We introduce the concept of an extremely negatively dependent (END) sequence of random variables with a given common marginal distribution. The END structure, as a new benchmark for negative dependence, is comparable to comonotonicity and…

This dissertation highlights connections between the fields of neural networks, game theory and time series generation. The concept of antipredictability is explained, and the properties of time series that are antipredictable for several…

Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate without any distributional…

In this paper we give a brief review of semiparametric theory, using as a running example the common problem of estimating an average causal effect. Semiparametric models allow at least part of the data-generating process to be unspecified…

We study the probability that a random polynomial with integer coefficients is reducible when factored over the rational numbers. Using computer-generated data, we investigate a number of different models, including both monic and non-monic…

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the…

We study algorithmic randomness notions via effective versions of almost-everywhere theorems from analysis and ergodic theory. The effectivization is in terms of objects described by a computably enumerable set, such as lower semicomputable…

Conditional on the extended Riemann hypothesis, we show that with high probability, the characteristic polynomial of a random symmetric $\{\pm 1\}$-matrix is irreducible. This addresses a question raised by Eberhard in recent work. The main…

The ideal probabilistic forecast for a random variable $Y$ based on an information set $\mathcal{F}$ is the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $\mathcal{F}$. In the context of point forecasts aiming to specify a functional $T$ such as…

In algorithmic randomness, when one wants to define a randomness notion with respect to some non-computable measure $\lambda $, a choice needs to be made. One approach is to allow randomness tests to access the measure $\lambda $ as an…

A bounded Kolmogorov-Loveland selection rule is an adaptive strategy for recursively selecting a subsequence of an infinite binary sequence; such a subsequence may be interpreted as the query sequence of a time-bounded Turing machine. In…

Probabilistic programs are typically normal-looking programs describing posterior probability distributions. They intrinsically code up randomized algorithms and have long been at the heart of modern machine learning and approximate…

Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member…