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Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

I consider inference in a partially linear regression model under stationary $\beta$-mixing data after first stage deep neural network (DNN) estimation. Using the DNN results of Brown (2024), I show that the estimator for the finite…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-31 Chad Brown

Bayesian inference can quantify uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks using posterior distributions for model parameters and network output. By looking at these posterior distributions, one can separate the origin of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 H. Linander , O. Balabanov , H. Yang , B. Mehlig

Due to spatial dependence -- often characterized as complex and non-linear -- model misspecification is a prevalent and critical issue in spatial data analysis and prediction. As the data, and thus model performance, is heterogeneous,…

Gaussian graphical models provide a powerful framework to reveal the conditional dependency structure between multivariate variables. The process of uncovering the conditional dependency network is known as structure learning. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Lucas Vogels , Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , S. Ilker Birbil

Traditionally, spline or kernel approaches in combination with parametric estimation are used to infer the linear coefficient (fixed effects) in a partially linear mixed-effects model for repeated measurements. Using machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann

We show how random subspace methods can be adapted to estimating local projections with many controls. Random subspace methods have their roots in the machine learning literature and are implemented by averaging over regressions estimated…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-04 Viet Hoang Dinh , Didier Nibbering , Benjamin Wong

Bayesian inverse problems use observed data to update a prior probability distribution for an unknown state or parameter of a scientific system to a posterior distribution conditioned on the data. In many applications, the unknown parameter…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Josie König , Elizabeth Qian , Melina A. Freitag

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Riccardo Barbano , Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet

Spatial models are used in a variety research areas, such as environmental sciences, epidemiology, or physics. A common phenomenon in many spatial regression models is spatial confounding. This phenomenon takes place when spatially indexed…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-08 Isa Marques , Thomas Kneib , Nadja Klein

Understanding sequential information is a fundamental task for artificial intelligence. Current neural networks attempt to learn spatial and temporal information as a whole, limited their abilities to represent large scale spatial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Bo Pang , Kaiwen Zha , Hanwen Cao , Jiajun Tang , Minghui Yu , Cewu Lu

We assume the direct sum <A> o <B> for the signal subspace. As a result of post- measurement, a number of operational contexts presuppose the a priori knowledge of the LB -dimensional "interfering" subspace <B> and the goal is to estimate…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-17 Guillaume Bouleux , Rémy Boyer

Model Compression has drawn much attention within the deep learning community recently. Compressing a dense neural network offers many advantages including lower computation cost, deployability to devices of limited storage and memories,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Diptarka Saha , Zihe Liu , Feng Liang

The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-28 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their generative modeling nature and powerful data representation ability. In this paper, we review different structures of deep directed generative models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-16 Siqi Nie , Meng Zheng , Qiang Ji

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Arya Farahi , Jonah Rose , Paul Torrey

Spatially embedded networks are shaped by a combination of purely topological (space-independent) and space-dependent formation rules. While it is quite easy to artificially generate networks where the relative importance of these two…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-10 Franco Ruzzenenti , Francesco Picciolo , Riccardo Basosi , Diego Garlaschelli

Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-14 Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth , Arnab Hazra , Gourab Mukherjee