Related papers: Nonparametric logistic regression with deep learni…
This paper explores Maximum Likelihood in parametric models in the context of Sanov type Large Deviation Probabilities. MLE in parametric models under weighted sampling is shown to be associated with the minimization of a specific…
For supervised classification problems, this paper considers estimating the query's label probability through local regression using observed covariates. Well-known nonparametric kernel smoother and $k$-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) estimator,…
This paper studies the estimation of low-rank Markov chains from empirical trajectories. We propose a non-convex estimator based on rank-constrained likelihood maximization. Statistical upper bounds are provided for the Kullback-Leiber…
Asymptotic efficiency of targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) of target features of the data distribution relies on a a second order remainder being asymptotically negligible. In previous work we proposed a nonparametric MLE termed…
The Predictive Normalized Maximum Likelihood (pNML) scheme has been recently suggested for universal learning in the individual setting, where both the training and test samples are individual data. The goal of universal learning is to…
We study the convergence properties, in Hellinger and related distances, of nonparametric density estimators based on measure transport. These estimators represent the measure of interest as the pushforward of a chosen reference…
We revisit the classical problem of deriving convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in finite mixture models. The Wasserstein distance has become a standard loss function for the analysis of parameter estimation in…
We present theoretical properties of the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a density based on an independent and identically distributed sample in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our study covers both the case where the true underlying density is…
Numerical nonlinear algebra is applied to maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian models defined by linear constraints on the covariance matrix. We examine the generic case as well as special models (e.g. Toeplitz, sparse, trees) that…
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…
Given a single trajectory of a dynamical system, we analyze the performance of the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE). More precisely, we give nonasymptotic expected $l^2$-distance bounds between the LSE and the true regression…
In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This…
We establish some new non-asymptotical lower bounds for deviation of regular unbiased estimation of unknown parameter from its true value in different norms, alike the classical Rao-Kramer's inequality. We show that if the new norm is…
We tackle the problem of high-dimensional nonparametric density estimation by taking the class of log-concave densities on $\mathbb{R}^p$ and incorporating within it symmetry assumptions, which facilitate scalable estimation algorithms and…
Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture…
We study the properties of the MDL (or maximum penalized complexity) estimator for Regression and Classification, where the underlying model class is countable. We show in particular a finite bound on the Hellinger losses under the only…
The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is a foundational measure for comparing probability distributions. Yet in multivariate settings, its single value often obscures the underlying reasons for divergence, conflating mismatches in individual…
This study introduces the Misclassification Likelihood Matrix (MLM) as a novel tool for quantifying the reliability of neural network predictions under distribution shifts. The MLM is obtained by leveraging softmax outputs and clustering…
We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…
Multivariate, heteroscedastic errors complicate statistical inference in many large-scale denoising problems. Empirical Bayes is attractive in such settings, but standard parametric approaches rest on assumptions about the form of the prior…