Related papers: Beveridgean Phillips Curve
The lore paradigm for solving so-called horizon and flatness problems in cosmology is the primordial inflation. Plethora of inflationary models have been built in last decades and first experimental probes seem to appear in favor of the…
We explore constraints on various forms for the effective potential during inflation based upon a statistical comparison between inflation-generated fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background temperature and the COBE DMR results. Fits…
A statistical generalization is made of microeconomics in the spirit of going from classical to statistical mechanics. The price and quantity of every commodity1 traded in the market, at each instant of time, is considered to be an…
The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
We propose a new class of natural inflation models based on a hidden scale invariance. In a very generic Wilsonian effective field theory with an arbitrary number of scalar fields, which exhibits scale invariance via the dilaton, the…
Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…
We prove new slope inequalities for relatively minimal fibred surfaces, showing an influence of the relative irregularity, of the unitary rank and of the Clifford index on the slope. The argument uses Xiao's method and a new Clifford-type…
This paper describes an approach to economics that is inspired by quantum computing, and is motivated by the need to develop a consistent quantum mathematical framework for economics. The traditional neoclassical approach assumes that…
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired…
As a firm varies the price of a product, consumers exhibit reference effects, making purchase decisions based not only on the prevailing price but also the product's price history. We consider the problem of learning such behavioral…
The distribution of income and wealth in developed economies exhibits a robust two-class structure: an exponential (Boltzmann--Gibbs) bulk covering $\sim\!97\%$ of the population, and a power-law (Pareto) tail in the upper $\sim\!3\%$. We…
We present a method to compensate statistical errors in the calculation of correlations on asynchronous time series. The method is based on the assumption of an underlying time series. We set up a model and apply it to financial data to…
This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling…
Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…
We consider a firm that sells products over $T$ periods without knowing the demand function. The firm sequentially sets prices to earn revenue and to learn the underlying demand function simultaneously. A natural heuristic for this problem,…
US Yield curve has recently collapsed to its most flattened level since subprime crisis and is close to the inversion. This fact has gathered attention of investors around the world and revived the discussion of proper modeling and…
It is widely assumed that increases in economic productivity necessarily lead to economic growth. In this paper, it is shown that this is not always the case. An idealized model of an economy is presented in which a new technology allows…
Social networks have become an inseparable part of human life and processing them in an efficient manner is a top priority in the study of networks. These networks are highly dynamic and they are growing incessantly. Inspired by the concept…