Related papers: Beveridgean Phillips Curve
The causal compatibility question asks whether a given causal structure graph -- possibly involving latent variables -- constitutes a genuinely plausible causal explanation for a given probability distribution over the graph's observed…
In the last decade, a large body of literature has been developed to explain the universal features of inequality in terms of income and wealth. By now, it is established that the distributions of income and wealth in various economies show…
We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
We introduce the \emph{pipeline intervention} problem, defined by a layered directed acyclic graph and a set of stochastic matrices governing transitions between successive layers. The graph is a stylized model for how people from different…
We analyse the dependence of stock return cross-correlations on the sampling frequency of the data known as the Epps effect: For high resolution data the cross-correlations are significantly smaller than their asymptotic value as observed…
Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…
Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the…
High frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well stablished by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following…
One of the greatest contributors of the 20th century among all academician in the field of statistical finance, M. F. M. Osborne published in 1956 [6] an essential paper and proposed to treat the question of stock market motion through the…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a micro-economic foundation for an argument that the direct employment by the government is more desirable than the government purchase of private goods to eliminate unemployment. A general…
This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also known as the quantile crossing problem. The method consists in sorting or monotone…
Two distinct trends can prove the existence of technological unemployment in the US. First, there are more open jobs than the number of unemployed persons looking for a job, and second, the shift of the Beveridge curve. There have been many…
In a world blessed with a great diversity of loss functions, we argue that that choice between them is not a matter of taste or pragmatics, but of model. Probabilistic depencency graphs (PDGs) are probabilistic models that come equipped…
At the zero lower bound, the New Keynesian model predicts that output and inflation collapse to implausibly low levels, and that government spending and forward guidance have implausibly large effects. To resolve these anomalies, we…
In this paper, I present a visual representation of the relationship between mean hourly total compensation divided by per-capita GDP, hours worked per capita, and the labor share, and show the represented labor equilibrium equation is the…
Chatterjee's rank correlation is a directed measure of association designed to detect whether one variable can be predicted as a function of another. While the original coefficient is naturally defined for real-valued data, circular data…
To choose between two discrete goods, a consumer pays attention to only those with prices below a threshold. From these, she chooses her most preferred good. We assume consumers in a population have the same preference but may have…
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…
We show that embedding Natural Inflation in a more general scalar-tensor theory, with non-minimal couplings to the Ricci scalar and the kinetic term, alleviates the current tension of Natural Inflation with observational data. The coupling…