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Related papers: Cross-Validation Conformal Risk Control

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Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-07 Naixin Guo , Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Yu Gui , Rina Foygel Barber , Cong Ma

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huajun Xi , Jianguo Huang , Kangdao Liu , Lei Feng , Hongxin Wei

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Incidental detection and quantification of coronary calcium in CT scans could lead to the early introduction of lifesaving clinical interventions. However, over-reporting could negatively affect patient wellbeing and unnecessarily burden…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-05 Olivier Jaubert , Salman Mohammadi , Keith A. Goatman , Shadia S. Mikhael , Conor Bradley , Rebecca Hughes , Richard Good , John H. Hipwell , Sonia Dahdouh

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

We study the performance of risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS), an empirical risk minimization-based formulation of conformal prediction, with a single trajectory of temporally correlated data from an unknown stochastic dynamical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Brian Lee , Nikolai Matni

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for tuning a model with respect to user-selected parameters and for selecting a "best" model. For example, the method of $k$-nearest neighbors requires the user to choose $k$, the number of neighbors,…

Applications · Statistics 2012-03-01 Hui Shen , William J. Welch , Jacqueline M. Hughes-Oliver

We propose a new method for statistical inference in generalized linear models. In the overparameterized regime, Principal Component Regression (PCR) reduces variance by projecting high-dimensional data to a low-dimensional principal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Yixuan Florence Wu , Yilun Zhu , Lei Cao , Naichen Shi

This paper proposes a unified control framework based on Response-Aware Risk-Constrained Control Barrier Function for dynamic safety boundary control of vehicles. Addressing the problem of physical model parameter mismatch, the framework…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Qijun Liao , Jue Yang

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 David Stutz , Abhijit Guha Roy , Tatiana Matejovicova , Patricia Strachan , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-15 Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Srikumar Nayak

Composite adaptive control (CAC) that integrates direct and indirect adaptive control techniques can achieve smaller tracking errors and faster parameter convergence compared with direct and indirect adaptive control techniques. However,…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Yongping Pan , Lin Pan , Haoyong Yu