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We introduce a new framework, Bayesian Distributionally Robust Optimization (Bayesian-DRO), for data-driven stochastic optimization where the underlying distribution is unknown. Bayesian-DRO contrasts with most of the existing DRO…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-10 Alexander Shapiro , Enlu Zhou , Yifan Lin

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

The problem of modeling the relationship between univariate distributions and one or more explanatory variables has found increasing interest. Traditional functional data methods cannot be applied directly to distributional data because of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yidong Zhou , Hans-Georg Müller

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

The Bayesian update can be viewed as a variational problem by characterizing the posterior as the minimizer of a functional. The variational viewpoint is far from new and is at the heart of popular methods for posterior approximation.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

In an indirect Gaussian sequence space model lower and upper bounds are derived for the concentration rate of the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest shrinking to the parameter value $\theta^\circ$ that generates the data.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-03 Jan Johannes , Anna Simoni , Rudolf Schenk

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

In reliability engineering, data about failure events is often scarce. To arrive at meaningful estimates for the reliability of a system, it is therefore often necessary to also include expert information in the analysis, which is…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Gero Walter , Frank P. A. Coolen

We present a computationally efficient framework, called $\texttt{FlowDRO}$, for solving flow-based distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems with Wasserstein uncertainty sets while aiming to find continuous worst-case…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Chen Xu , Jonghyeok Lee , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

We address the challenge of sequential data-driven decision-making under context distributional uncertainty. This problem arises in numerous real-world scenarios where the learner optimizes black-box objective functions in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Francesco Micheli , Efe C. Balta , Anastasios Tsiamis , John Lygeros

Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication of uncertainty in material flow analyses (MFAs), and a systematic update of uncertainty as new data become available. However, the method is undermined by the difficultly of defining…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-28 Jiayuan Dong , Jiankan Liao , Xun Huan , Daniel Cooper

Inference and decision making under uncertainty are key processes in every autonomous system and numerous robotic problems. In recent years, the similarities between inference and decision making triggered much work, from developing unified…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-06 Elad I. Farhi , Vadim Indelman

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Qinglong Tian , Colin Lewis-Beck , Jarad Niemi , William Meeker

Personalized recommender systems are playing an increasingly important role as more content and services become available and users struggle to identify what might interest them. Although matrix factorization and deep learning based methods…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-01-14 Chen Ma , Liheng Ma , Yingxue Zhang , Ruiming Tang , Xue Liu , Mark Coates

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

We consider the problem of assessing goodness of fit of a single Bayesian model to the observed data in the inverse problem context. A novel procedure of goodness of fit test is proposed, based on construction of reference distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Sourabh Bhattacharya

Existing methods to summarize posterior inference for mixture models focus on identifying a point estimate of the implied random partition for clustering, with density estimation as a secondary goal (Wade and Ghahramani, 2018; Dahl et al.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Khai Nguyen , Peter Mueller

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

This article is a companion paper to our earlier work Miroshnikov et al. (2021) on fairness interpretability, which introduces bias explanations. In the current work, we propose a bias mitigation methodology based upon the construction of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Alexey Miroshnikov , Konstandinos Kotsiopoulos , Ryan Franks , Arjun Ravi Kannan
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