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We consider the problem of designing almost optimal predictors for dynamical systems from a finite sequence of noisy observations and incomplete knowledge of the dynamics and the noise. We first discuss the properties of the optimal (Bayes)…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-07-30 Marian Anghel , Ingo Steinwart

Bayesian optimization (BO) methods choose sample points by optimizing an acquisition function derived from a statistical model of the objective. These acquisition functions are chosen to balance sampling regions with predicted good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Darian Nwankwo , David Bindel

We present an improved Bayesian framework for performing inference of affine transformations of constrained functions. We focus on quadrature with nonnegative functions, a common task in Bayesian inference. We consider constraints on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-28 Henry Chai , Roman Garnett

Active policy search combines the trial-and-error methodology from policy search with Bayesian optimization to actively find the optimal policy. First, policy search is a type of reinforcement learning which has become very popular for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Ruben Martinez-Cantin

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is used to find the global optima of black box functions. In this work, we propose a practical BO method of function compositions where the form of the composition is known but the constituent functions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-02 Kunal Jain , Prabuchandran K. J. , Tejas Bodas

The performance of Bayesian optimization (BO), a highly sample-efficient method for expensive black-box problems, is critically governed by the selection of its hyperparameters, including the kernel and acquisition functions. This presents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Joon-Hyun Park , Mujin Cheon , Jeongsu Wi , Dong-Yeun Koh

Anomalies in economic and financial data -- often linked to rare yet impactful events -- are of theoretical interest, but can also severely distort inference. Although outlier-robust methodologies can be used, many researchers prefer…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Monica Billio , Roberto Casarin , Fausto Corradin , Antonio Peruzzi

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning but remain largely heuristic. We introduce a unifying variational framework that formalizes these methods by integrating convex transformations of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Juan Diego Toscano , Daniel T. Chen , Vivek Oommen , Jérôme Darbon , George Em Karniadakis

This paper proposes an Adaptive Learning Model Predictive Control strategy for uncertain constrained linear systems performing iterative tasks. The additive uncertainty is modeled as the sum of a bounded process noise and an unknown…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-04-27 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Xiaojing Zhang , Ugo Rosolia , Francesco Borrelli

We propose a framework for the configuration and operation of expensive-to-evaluate advanced manufacturing methods, based on Bayesian optimization. The framework unifies a tailored acquisition function, a parallel acquisition procedure, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Xavier Guidetti , Alisa Rupenyan , Lutz Fassl , Majid Nabavi , John Lygeros

Bayesian optimization (BO) provides a powerful framework for optimizing black-box, expensive-to-evaluate functions. It is therefore an attractive tool for engineering design problems, typically involving multiple objectives. Thanks to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Navid Ansari , Alireza Javanmardi , Eyke Hüllermeier , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

Many real-world optimization problems involve uncertain parameters with probability distributions that can be estimated using contextual feature information. In contrast to the standard approach of first estimating the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Meng Qi , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

We consider the problem of designing a sequential decision making agent to maximize an unknown time-varying function which switches with time. At each step, the agent receives an observation of the function's value at a point decided by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Durgesh Kalwar , Vineeth B. S

We address the problem of Bayesian reinforcement learning using efficient model-based online planning. We propose an optimism-free Bayes-adaptive algorithm to induce deeper and sparser exploration with a theoretical bound on its performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Divya Grover , Debabrota Basu , Christos Dimitrakakis

The paper presents a machine learning approach to design digital interfaces that can dynamically adapt to different users and usage strategies. The algorithm uses Bayesian statistics to model users' browsing behavior, focusing on their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Eric Petit , Denis Chêne

Bayesian Optimization critically depends on the choice of acquisition function, but no single strategy is universally optimal; the best choice is non-stationary and problem-dependent. Existing adaptive portfolio methods often base their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Giang Ngo , Dat Phan Trong , Dang Nguyen , Sunil Gupta , Svetha Venkatesh

An evolutionary form of a generalized Bayesian update method, which is strictly derivative- free yet directed through an additive update term based purely on the statistical moments of the design variables, is proposed for nonlinear inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-17 M Venugopal , D Roy , R M Vasu

Bayesian optimization is a powerful optimization tool for problems where native first-order derivatives are unavailable. Recently, constrained Bayesian optimization (CBO) has been applied to many engineering applications where constraints…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-21 J. Wang , C. G. Petra , J. L. Peterson

Bayesian Optimization is an effective method for searching the global maxima of an objective function especially if the function is unknown. The process comprises of using a surrogate function and choosing an acquisition function followed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Ashish Anil Pawar , Ujwal Warbhe

Science and technology have a growing need for effective mechanisms that ensure reliable, controlled performance from black-box machine learning algorithms. These performance guarantees should ideally hold conditionally on the input-that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Vincent Blot , Anastasios N Angelopoulos , Michael I Jordan , Nicolas J-B Brunel