Related papers: Estimating the Hawkes process from a discretely ob…
Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…
Despite the enormous success of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and related Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, sampling often still represents the computational bottleneck in scientific applications. Availability of parallel resources can…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…
This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…
We consider the problem of inference for nonlinear, multivariate diffusion processes, satisfying It\^o stochastic differential equations (SDEs), using data at discrete times that may be incomplete and subject to measurement error. Our…
We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex…
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…
Smoothing in state-space models amounts to computing the conditional distribution of the latent state trajectory, given observations, or expectations of functionals of the state trajectory with respect to this distributions. For models that…
Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…
When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network.…
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…
Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…
Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) generates samples from a prescribed probability distribution in a configuration space by simulating Hamiltonian dynamics, followed by the Metropolis (-Hastings) acceptance/rejection step. Compressible HMC (CHMC)…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…
Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…
Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…