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In recent years, there has been increasing interest in causal reasoning for designing fair decision-making systems due to its compatibility with legal frameworks, interpretability for human stakeholders, and robustness to spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Aida Rahmattalabi , Alice Xiang

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-12 Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 José A. Ferreira

We introduce a novel framework for causal explanations of stochastic, sequential decision-making systems built on the well-studied structural causal model paradigm for causal reasoning. This single framework can identify multiple,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Samer B. Nashed , Saaduddin Mahmud , Claudia V. Goldman , Shlomo Zilberstein

Causal inference has recently garnered significant interest among recommender system (RS) researchers due to its ability to dissect cause-and-effect relationships and its broad applicability across multiple fields. It offers a framework to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Huishi Luo , Fuzhen Zhuang , Ruobing Xie , Hengshu Zhu , Deqing Wang , Zhulin An , Yongjun Xu

Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Inwoo Hwang , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Kevin Xia , Kai-Zhan Lee , Yoshua Bengio , Elias Bareinboim

Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Lewis Hammond , James Fox , Tom Everitt , Ryan Carey , Alessandro Abate , Michael Wooldridge

The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Benedikt Höltgen , Robert C. Williamson

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

In the univariate case, we show that by comparing the individual complexities of univariate cause and effect, one can identify the cause and the effect, without considering their interaction at all. In our framework, complexities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Tomer Galanti , Ofir Nabati , Lior Wolf

We propose a new definition of actual cause, using structural equations to model counterfactuals. We show that the definition yields a plausible and elegant account of causation that handles well examples which have caused problems for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Judea Pearl

Causality is receiving increasing attention by the artificial intelligence and machine learning communities. This paper gives an example of modelling a recommender system problem using causal graphs. Specifically, we approached the causal…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Emanuele Cavenaghi , Fabio Stella , Markus Zanker

We examine how causal beliefs affect an agent's choices and how feedback on those choices leads to updated causal beliefs. Building on the structural-equations framework for modeling causality, we first examine the general problem of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-11 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont , Marie-Louise Vierø

Addressing the problem of fairness is crucial to safely use machine learning algorithms to support decisions with a critical impact on people's lives such as job hiring, child maltreatment, disease diagnosis, loan granting, etc. Several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Karima Makhlouf , Sami Zhioua , Catuscia Palamidessi

When inferring the causal effect of one variable on another from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers as well as lay decision makers is to control for some set of exogenous confounding variables. Choosing an…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-31 Ran Spiegler
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