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We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and $f$-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-24 Ronak Mehta , Vincent Roulet , Krishna Pillutla , Zaid Harchaoui

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-21 Artem Lensky , Mingyu Hao

The recent emergence of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum has posed possible alternatives to global payments as well as financial assets around the globe, making investors and financial regulators aware of the importance of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-02 Shinji Kakinaka , Ken Umeno

The role of cryptocurrencies within the financial systems has been expanding rapidly in recent years among investors and institutions. It is therefore crucial to investigate the phenomena and develop statistical methods able to capture…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-22 Beatrice Foroni , Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Mansi Sharma , Enrico Sartor , Marc Cavazza , Helmut Prendinger

Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-16 Arash Peik , Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki , Amin Milani Fard , Mehdi Agha Sarram

Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-31 Stavros Stavroyiannis

Existing studies on crypto wash trading often use indirect statistical methods or leaked private data, both with inherent limitations. This paper leverages public on-chain NFT data for a more direct and granular estimation. Analyzing three…

General Economics · Economics 2025-03-04 Brett Hemenway Falk , Gerry Tsoukalas , Niuniu Zhang

Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-23 Zhengkun Li

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-13 Himanshu Gupta , Aditya Jaiswal

Predicting the prices of stocks at any stock market remains a quest for many investors and researchers. Those who trade at the stock market tend to use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in their predictions. These methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-20 Barack Wamkaya Wanjawa

Stock market and cryptocurrency forecasting is very important to investors as they aspire to achieve even the slightest improvement to their buy or hold strategies so that they may increase profitability. However, obtaining accurate and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Hakan Pabuccu , Adrian Barbu

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Gabriel R. Palma , Mariusz Skoczeń , Phil Maguire

A variety of statistical and machine learning methods are used to model crash frequency on specific roadways with machine learning methods generally having a higher prediction accuracy. Recently, heterogeneous ensemble methods (HEM),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-25 Numan Ahmad , Behram Wali , Asad J. Khattak

Modeling the behavior of stock price data has always been one of the challengeous applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) due to its high complexity and dependence on various conditions. Recent studies show…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-14 Xinyuan Song

Bitcoin, one of the major cryptocurrencies, presents great opportunities and challenges with its tremendous potential returns accompanying high risks. The high volatility of Bitcoin and the complex factors affecting them make the study of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-04 Qiutong Guo , Shun Lei , Qing Ye , Zhiyang Fang

Stock return prediction is a problem that has received much attention in the finance literature. In recent years, sophisticated machine learning methods have been shown to perform significantly better than ''classical'' prediction…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Giovanni Ballarin , Jacopo Capra , Petros Dellaportas

Long term investment is one of the major investment strategies. However, calculating intrinsic value of some company and evaluating shares for long term investment is not easy, since analyst have to care about a large number of financial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-11 Nikola Milosevic

Time series analysis is the process of building a model using statistical techniques to represent characteristics of time series data. Processing and forecasting huge time series data is a challenging task. This paper presents Approximation…

We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-27 Kasper Johansson , Mehmet Giray Ogut , Markus Pelger , Thomas Schmelzer , Stephen Boyd